And the Econ winners for 2007 are...

.... Leonid Hurwicz, Eric Maskin and Roger Myerson, for "having laid the foundations of mechanism design theory". See more about this on nobelprize.org. Totally deserved, albeit they were not among the ones with the highest odds this year (so don't bet next time...). My (wrong) forecast can be a choice for one of the future years, though perhaps not for the next one or two.

My prediction for the Economics prize tomorrow

All right, here we go, as promised:

• The 2007 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel goes to Oliver Hart, Bengt Holmstrom and Oliver Williamson for their contributions to the theory of the firm.

Let's see how good of a forecast this is; in any case I am 100% sure that I will be able to refer back to this prediction for any future year, sooner or later they'll get the Nobel :-).

Quote for week 7th-13th of October '07

In order to cure most ills of human life, I require not that man should have the wings of the eagle, the swiftness of the stag, the force of the ox, the arms of the lion, the scales of the crocodile or rhinoceros; much less do I demand the sagacity of an angel or cherubim. I am contented to take an increase in one single power or faculty of his soul. Let him be endowed with a greater propensity to industry and labour; a more vigurous spring and activity of mind; a more constant bent to business and application.

David Hume

Quote for the previous week.

Nobel Econ odds

The most important Nobel prize will be announced on Monday. Now, if you did not already bet in the "Harvard pool" (at the very end of the day I didn't bet there for a most silly reason: I could not find in the whole of DK a 1$ bill to mail with my proposal :-)), here you can see other betting pools and the predictions of Thomson ISI. And as I previously said, tomorrow I'll announce my own, winning, forecast :-)

• Thomson ISI Econ predictions

• Intrade.com Econ bets and odds

• Ladbrokes.com Econ bets and odds

It looks like Elhanan Helpman & Gene Grossman have the best odds overall; indeed international trade seems to be a/the hype lately (and indeed Helpman and Grossman deserve the Nobel, sooner or later). Though my personal wish is that Dale Mortensen wins it this year (he will for sure win it in one the coming years, most likely joint with Peter Diamond and Chris Pissarides, for developing the search models; but why not just now?), especially since he just gave me excellent comments & critique at this (ex post very good!) "Labour Market Dynamics Growth" conference in Sandbjerg from where I returned yesterday-- and that despite the fact that I made a mess out of my presentation :-). Dale for Nobel!

Quote for week 30th of Sep- 6th of Oct '07

A paper in Economics which is not rejected should not be published

Ariel Rubinstein

Previous quote of the week.

Bet 1$ for your choice as this year's Economics Nobelist

This seems a serious thing- all funds go to charity and the winners of the pool select the precise charity destination. And there are only a few more days to go, so hurry up! This is via Greg Mankiw who also offers tips of favourite choices from last year... I'll place my forecast --which will obviously be the correct one :-)-- on my blog on October 14th, so that I do not influence others who might want to bet.

Econlinks for 04 Oct '07

• Try a free "publish or perish" software. Though it does pretty much the same (and only that, as far as I had time to test...) as scholar.google.com

• Rules vs. discretion: Posner continues Becker's entry on rules versus discretion in the context of central banks' decisions, but by doing so he also provides an excellent general discussion on the law and economics of the subject. I don't think anybody can beat Posner in that area.

• Vote (ex post I wouldn't bother...) for the free market hall of fame. Could have been done much better, the way they did this is a shame, really. And some of the results so far reinforce that...

• A September '07 profile of Robert Barro, yet another (potential) physicist turned (macro)economist :-).

On Cluj, property prices and (local) ambitions

I'd have many problems with some of the ideas put forward in there (eg. Emil Boc's role in Cluj's development for instance is highly overrated-- a cost-benefit analysis would most likely arrive at the opposite conclusion; the whole idea of the article is to convince people to invest in advertised property on that site, hence the general upward bias in the assessment; there is then the entirely ignored idea of spurious rises in property price, aka a possible bubble on everybody's language etc.-- but let's ignore all the shortcomings for the moment), but, overall, this short (two months old) article from 'Property Secrets' makes an interesting point. E.g., it sums up quite well the idea that Romanian cities have recently engaged in a tough (but welcome) competition to attract investment and expand (in multiple dimensions). And I tend to agree that Cluj-Napoca is, in several ways, on the right path; as for being the "second city" in Romania, that's a known known, so to speak, for some time (neah, neither Iasi, nor Constanta can beat us there, if you ask me). But the comparison term should be the world's league of second cities though; true ambitions should transcend national borders. Especially when it's about Romania's borders.

World's Rubik Cube Championship

Here, starts in 2 days in Budapest; Ernő Rubik will also be present this time. With quite complex competition rules... And fun statistics (e.g. youngest person to solve Rubik's is 4 years old)

Radiohead members should start PhDs in Experimental Economics

... because their recent idea makes for a super interesting experiment; we have all very high hopes :-). So go and download their latest album, "In Rainbows". Really no scam: it's all up to you, you can pay as much as you want (for the download version). Got the exciting news via via Greg Mankiw.