1a Editie a Conferintei Economistilor Romani din Mediul Academic din Strainatate (ERMAS). Comunicat al Coordonatorilor.

La adresele web http://www.conferinta.econacademia.net si respectiv http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/ermas2014 veti gasi programul recent actualizat al Primei Editii a Conferintei Stiintifice a Economistilor Romani din Mediul Academic din Strainatate (ERMAS), gazduita de Universitatea Babes-Bolyai (UBB), Facultatea de Stiinte Economice si Gestiunea Afacerilor (FSEGA), la Cluj-Napoca, intre 18-22 August 2014 (potentiale completari/ actualizari pana la versiunea finala sunt posibile). Link-uri directe (PDFs) la structura generala a programului, si respectiv la programul detaliat pe sesiuni.

Inregistrarea tuturor celor interesati sa participe in audienta conferintei se face exclusiv prin formularul UBB-FSEGA http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/ermas2014/formular.php pana la data maxima de 30 iunie 2014. 

La conferinta ERMAS 2014 vor prezenta lucrari stiintifice si/sau vor participa in diferite dezbateri de interes public (vedeti si mai jos, si detaliat in program) in jur de 50 de economisti romani de succes (realizat sau potential), afiliati unora dintre cele cele mai renumite universitati sau institutii de cercetare, in domeniul stiintelor economice, din. e.g., SUA, Canada, sau tari ale Uniunii Europene, incluzand institutii din Romania. Pe langa acestia, invitati speciali in sesiuni tip masa-rotunda/ dezbatere deschisa sunt cativa reprezentanti cheie ai mediului de politici economice, precum si ai invatamantului superior si cercetarii, din Romania. Conferinta este o premiera absoluta in Romania, atat din perspectiva stiintelor economice, cat si a oricaror discipline stiintifice (plus popularizare/ dezbatere stiintifica), in general. Cateva sute de persoane, cu predilectie din mediul academic, dar si din alte medii precum cel antreprenorial, guvernamental, ONG, mass-media, vor participa, in expectanta, in audienta conferintei (cateva zeci fiind deja inregistrate).

Pe langa partea principala a programului conferintei, constand in prezentarile de lucrari stiintifice contribuite sau invitate din sesiunile paralele, sau prezentarile "keynote" din sesiunile plenare, atragem explicit atentia asupra unor sesiuni speciale, de potential interes general:

- sesiune de dezbatere pe politici economice de mare interes pentru Romania: luni dupa-masa, 18 august

- sesiune de sfaturi pentru tinerii si mai putin tinerii economisti: marti seara, 19 august

- sesiune dezbatere despre starea, politica si managementul cercetarii stiintifice din Romania, cu focus pe cercetarea economica: miercuri seara, 20 august

- sesiune de scurte comunicari-rezumat de cercetare folosind date din/ direct relevante pentru Romania: joi dimineata, 21 august

- sesiune despre viitoarele editii ale conferintei ERMAS- si alte activitati relevante ale Econacademia: joi seara, 21 august

Informatii complete despre initiativa, inclusiv despre tintele si asteptarile de termen scurt si lung ale conferintei ERMAS (in expectanta, anuala), sunt disponibile pe http://www.conferinta.econacademia.net. Pentru orice noutati si actualizari: https://twitter.com/econacademia sau http://www.noutati.econacademia.net.  

Toate aceste informatii se pot evident disemina liber (eventual adaptat corespunzator), prin orice mediu de comunicare. 

Asteptam sa va intalnim la ERMAS 2014,

Coordonatorii ERMAS 2014: Sebastian Buhai (Stockholm University), Mihai Copaciu (Banca Nationala a Romaniei), Cosmin Ilut (Duke University) si Cristian Litan (Universitatea Babes-Bolyai)

PS. In momentul acesta-- deci la pranz, 6 iunie 2014-- mai sunt exact 5 locuri ramase pentru persoane potential interesate de a participa in cursul asociat ERMAS 2014, "Big Data Econometrics" (BDE), instructor Otilia Boldea, Tilburg University. Inscrierea se face in baza principiului "first come, first served", pana maxim la 30 iunie. Detalii complete despre curs, inclusiv modalitatea de inscriere (atentie: inscrierea la curs e SEPARATA de inregistrarea ca participant in audienta conferintei; in particular, toate persoanele inscrise la BDE, si interesate de conferinta, trebuie sa se inregistreze si in audienta conferintei, folosind formularul UBB-FSEGA mentionat mai sus; mutatis mutandis, persoanele inregistrate in audienta conferintei nu sunt automat inscrise si la curs, inscrierea la curs presupunand in prealabil primirea unui email confirmare de la instructorul cursului, conform instructiunilor)

Despre economia Romaniei (si nu numai). Fragmente dintr-un interviu nepublicat

Cat de “negru” considerati ca va fi 2012 din punct de vedere economico/financiar si cum ar putea fi afectata Romania?

Nu avem, din nefericire, motive sa jubilam. Pe fondul deteriorarii perspectivei economice in general, si datorita crizei din zona euro in particular, 2012 va fi incert si pentru Romania.  Dupa cum stim la ora asta, toate agentiile globale au revizuit in scadere previziunile privind evolutia economiilor europene, din eurozona si din afara ei, incluzand aici FMI, Banca Mondiala, BERD etc. Fara sa dau prea multe detalii asupra a ceea ce puteti gasi practic in toate aceste rapoarte, fac o scurta trecere in revista a catorva dintre aspectele economice care ar putea fi direct afectate in Romania (NB: discutii mai specifice despre unele aspecte sunt prezente si in alte parti din acest interviu):

-       exporturile; criza eurozonei ar putea afecta cei mai importanti parteneri comerciali ai Romaniei (peste 70% din comertul exterior—ca volum exporturi plus importuri—este cu statele UE, in particular Italia, Germania si Franta), reducand substantial perspectiva exporturilor romanesti, unde nu stateam pe roze nici pana acum (deficitul comercial in Octombrie 2011 era de 747 milioane de euro, de unde am “revenit” de la mai rau)

-       accesul la credite; exista posibilitatea ca bancile straine (care detin 80% din activele bancare din Romania) sa isi reduca critic expunerea pe pietele emergente din centrul si estul Europei pe fondul crizei din eurozona (o restrangere substantiala a creditarii s-a facut deja in trimestrul trei al 2011).

-       riscul financiar; tot prin relatiile financiar-bancare importante cu banci expuse crizei euro-zonei, varianta (“spread”-ul) CDS-urilor ar putea sa creasca si mai mult (in cazul Romaniei s-a marit deja cu peste dublul mediei caracteristice economiilor emergente), implicand incertitudine mult marita pe piata financiara

Catalizat de impactul asupra dimensiunilor economice de mai sus, se pot anticipa si consecinte negative indirecte, de exemplu nevoia de noi masuri de austeritate bugetara, avand in vedere ca avem deja  imprumuturi foarte mari (transa recenta de 5 bilioane de euro de la FMI adaugandu-se imprumutului de 27 bilioane garantat de FMI si UE in 2009) si nivelul deficitului bugetar maxim e fixat, conform acordurilor cu creditorii; inrautatirea indicatorilor pietei muncii (lipsa noilor locuri de munca, somaj in crestere, salarii inghetate, ajutoare sociale anulate s.a.m.d); reducerea bugetelor alocate educatiei si cercetarii, unde suntem mult sub tintele propuse si incredibil de mult sub cele optime s.a.m.d. Cert este ca va fi nevoie de eforturi mari pentru a sustine o crestere economica pozitiva in viitorul apropiat. Discut in finalul acestui interviu despre masuri implementabile in viitorul apropiat care ar putea ameliora aceasta perspectiva economica.

 [...]

Am vazut ca sunteti la curent cu ceea ce se intampla in Romania (am vazut pe blog ca ati postat un editorial a lui Tapalaga).  Care ar putea fi cateva masuri pentru evitarea unei recesiuni in Romania (asa cum multi se astepta pentru 2012)?

In lipsa spatiului, ma voi limita doar la doua categorii principale (plus cateva subcategorii) de masuri pe care le consider importante pentru viitorul apropiat.

-       Guvern de tehnocrati si implicare mult mai mare a electoratului (legislativului). In momentul in care ar fi nevoie de ei mai mult ca niciodata, echipa guvernamentala nu are un singur economist credibil. In plus, alegatorii nu sunt implicati deloc in decizii economice care ii afecteaza imediat. Sa facem o paralela intre doua democratii-- in teorie ambele functionale. In SUA, Presedintele isi ia foarte in serios rolul de se consulta (in practica, de a urma recomandarile)  pe orice tema economica cu echipa sa de consilierii economici (“Council of Economic Advisers”, i.e. CEA) si de convinge publicul/legislativul asupra necesitatii unor masuri recomandate de acestia; pozitia este perfect descrisa de citatul “spuneti-mi ce e corect, si ma voi gandi cum sa vand asta cel mai bine” (conversatie publicata intr-un memoriu CEA, intre Presedintele Obama si Christina Romer, fosta sefa a CEA). In Romania, politicile economice se decid in aparenta fara consultarea expertilor si se implementeaza fara implicarea alegatorilor (alternativ, a reprezentatilor acestora in Parlament), prin “asumarea raspunderii” Guvernului; pozitia Executivului (si a Presedintiei) aduce deci mai mult cu “nu va bateti capul, stim noi bine ce facem”[1].

-       Incetarea reducerii cheltuielilor bugetare si axarea pe reforme structurale pentru crestere durabila pe termen lung, in (cvasi)recesiuni. Multe din masurile de consolidare fiscala de pana acum, chiar si cele justificabile pe termen mediu si lung, au fost implementate prea brusc, la momentul inoportun. Reducerea cheltuielilor bugetare in perioade de recesiune curenta sau anticipata este controversata: nu exista o minoritate consistenta de economisti care sa le recomande fara rezerve. Desi nu avem un model teoretic cu previziuni precise, cele mai robuste rezultate empirice arata ca austeritatea in episoade de recesiune a fost urmata de episoade de prelungire, sau chiar agravare a recesiunii. In lipsa unor concluzii decisive in privinta cauzalitatii, avem suficiente motive sa anticipam efecte negative; ori cand vorbim de politici economice, bunastarea cetatenilor este obiectivul prioritar. Accentul trebuie pus pe reforme structurale de relansare economica, care sa induca o crestere economica durabila. Foarte succint, exemple de asemenea masuri necesare in Romania ar fi (pe langa masurile neimplementate de mai jos, unele au fost implementate doar superficial/partial si trebuie continuate/intensificate; in alte cazuri unele reforme s-au implementat exact pe dos, vezi de exemplu reducerea unor cheltuieli de finantare a cercetarii ca parte a pachetului de masuri de austeritate etc.):

o    Reforme ale pietei muncii. In contextul Romaniei, masurile pe partea cererii fortei de munca sunt in prezent prioritare, intre ele stimularea crearii de noi locuri de munca. Pe de alta parte masuri de stimulare a participarii in forta de munca ar trebui sa ramana in agenda tot timpul (superficial unele au fost implementate; de remarcat insa aici ca masuri gen reducerea ajutoarelor de somaj in perioade de recesiune, cand factual problema e lipsa locurilor de munca, dovedesc orice altceva decat competenta si responsabilitate sociala).

o    Reforme de privatizare. Privatizarea marilor companii de stat a fost de mult discutata, mult promisa, dar inca neefectuata; costurile intarzierilor sunt uriase. Privatizarea sistemului medical (NB facuta inteligent: copierea sistemului olandez sau elvetian “dupa ureche” nu e o solutie) este un alt exercitiu care trebuie finalizat etc.

o  Reforme de incurajare a antreprenoriatului. Masuri din aceasta categorie includ exemple gen stimularea prin deduceri de taxe in primii ani de activitate antreprenoriala, reducerea birocratiei necesare deschiderii unei afaceri proprii (in iunie 2011 eram pe locul 63 in lume din punct de vedere a cat de usor este sa devii antreprenor si pe locul 72 in clasificarea a cat de usor este sa functionezi ca antreprenor; cred ca se poate mai bine)

o    Reforme pentru R&D. Include cresterea investitiei in activitatile de cercetare si dezvoltare (R&D), si, implicit, in adaptarea si sustinerea invatamantului pentru a produce capitalul uman necesar acestor activitati.

o    Masuri de stimulare a investitiilor private din strainatate. Atragerea de capital privat este in prezent esentiala pentru Romania. Alternative existente pentru investitii (publice si/sau private) precum fondurile europene structurale si de coeziune (chiar la o rata de absorbtie de multe ori mai mare decat cea de pana acum) sau genul de parteneriate public-privat in derulare nu sunt suficiente sau neaparat sustenabile.

Puteti citi intreg documentul (10 intrebari + raspunsuri) in format PDF aici. 

---

[1] Citatul e imaginar, insa din categoria celor reale oferite de Executiv, si mai ales de Presedintie. Un exemplu elocvent din discursul recent  al domnului Basescu la investirea noului guvern: “Nu pot cere unui popor sa inteleaga prompt ce trebuie sa faca un guvern pentru ca tara sa nu se prabuseasca”.

Facts and fantasy about the financial crisis

I find it the most lucid summary (and criticism) of almost everything influential that has been published on the financial crisis so far. Some of the books are reviewed too briefly, and some newer ones are completely omitted, but nonetheless I think this is the most concise and useful general-purpose article written on the crisis as yet. Currently you can download Andrew Lo's "Reading about the financial crisis: A 21-Book Review" from his website (PDF version dated Jan 9, 2012). It is prepared for the JEL-- hence you should be able to find it also in one of the their next issues, perhaps in an updated version.

A special mention: the "Fact and Fantasy" section of the article covers the startling misinterpretations (some of them still awaiting to be corrected!), by several prominent academics, policy makers, and journalists, of the 2004 change in the SEC Rule 15c3-1 concerning leverage restrictions of certain financial institutions. It is beyond alarming how fast and easy some of these errors propagate even among what-ought-to-be-connaisseurs-- and how long and hard it takes for them to be discovered and debunked thereafter. The following edifying quote from Lo's article cannot be emphasized enough: 

[...] Only the most neurotic of academics would dig further to attempt to refute a "fact" that jibes with his or her intuition and preconceptions. This example should serve as a cautionary tale for all of us, and underscores the critical need to collect, check, and accumulate data from which more accurate inferences can then be drawn. Without the immutable hard platform of objective facts on which we can build an accurate narrative of the crisis that stands the test of time, there's little hope for scientific progress as the waves of public opinion toss our perspective in one direction or another. This is one of the most compelling reasons to read more than one account of the financial crisis, and to seek out those books that may not agree with our preconceptions, just in case we've been inadvertently misled through faulty "facts".

* update: the selected quote above is from the October 24, 2011 version of Lo's article; it is slightly different in the Jan 9, 2012 PDF version linked above. I have a preference for the older version, hence I leave that one here.

My whereabouts

After a thought-provoking lecture yesterday by Daron Acemoglu on "Why Nations Fail" at Kellogg (if/when the previous link is replaced, you should be able to find the information on Acemoglu's lecture here)*, I am soon off to Vancouver, attending/presenting at the 2011 Society of Labor Economists (SOLE) meeting. Looking forward to the usually interesting SOLE conference, and to what I am being told should be a great city!

* I also attended Al Roth's excellent talk on "Market Design" a year ago, part of the same impressive Nancy Schwartz Memorial Lecture series; the more recent ones are all available in video format on the site; do not miss them!

Econlinks: The Dale T. Mortensen Nobel edition

• The most recent event under this heading is the Northwestern conference in the honor of Dale-- with some very good and some not so good presentations...-- featuring also some  very (and some not so) entertaining speeches by former Mortensen students, co-authors, advisers etc, either at the dinner at the Northwestern Allen Center on Friday evening, or at the drinks & snacks session at Beverly and Dale's splendid home (photo with Ija on their balcony) on Saturday evening. Read also this Northwestern Univ. article about the event.  If you ask me, Guido Menzio had both the most interesting presentation ("Social Insurance for Frictional Wage Inequality") and by far the best speech (let us call it "Guido, may the Force be with you!"); unfortunately, neither of them is available online, too bad if you were not there.
• Now rewind: I have first mentioned about Dale's Prize here, as some of us really were with Dale in Denmark when he got the magic phone call (this happened after I had correctly predicted Diamond, Mortensen and Pissarides winning the Prize in Economic Sciences, the day before). I'll try to organize the following links on chronological order since.
• Listen to the initial phone interview between the Nobel Foundation's Adam Smith and Dale (you might have heard about the funny Adam Smith phone call to Ned Phelps's home some years before; people are somewhat more prepared to Adam Smith calling them since...).
• Here's Dale's answering machine message about the Prize to Beverly Mortensen: have your sound on as well-- this is super funny.
• I have uploaded on Flickr one of my short videoclips from the John Abowd seminar in Aarhus, at the Aarhus School of Business (ASB), Dep of Econ building, which started with champagne for Dale (unfortunately the sound seems to have gotten lost on the way...). All spontaneusly organized my myself, Valerie and Frederic: I think we managed quite well. I even made sure these visiting guys were not missing the start of the party (even if Shimer thought I am trying to trick him to get him to the seminar--duh..., Rob!...-- when I called with the Dale-won-the-Nobel news)
• The first Aarhus Univ journalist & photographer arrived for Dale (hallway of the ASB's Frichshuset) and here's a very first Dale video interview, just outside the Frichshuset, in which Dale tells the Danish reporter that yes, the Danes can also feel proud because of his winning the Prize.
• After a first full day of interviews and photo sessions for Dale, the first dinner party takes place at one of my very favorite restaurant in Aarhus, Klassisk 65. Thanks to Valerie for helping me with the organization (we had planned the dinner at Klassisk for that day in any event; with Dale winning the Prize in that day, we had to try hard to include more people on the reservation list, and plan in  much more detail). Watch the official TV2 documentary (very slow, be patient) from the place, including the by now famous Dale-sabring-the-champagne-bottle moment(s). I uploaded one of my own videoclips from Klassisk as well (again no sound). 
• A nice video capturing Dale's returning to Chicago from Denmark, with family and the NU brass band welcoming him at O'Hare. 
• One advantage of being  affiliated both with Aarhus and Northwestern is that I got to participate in all the Dale Mortensen-parties! Obviously Northwestern had to rise up to the occasion, and I think they managed well: there were several events, including two parties--one Department of Economics-wide, one NU-wide -- organized in relation to Dale's winning the Prize. Here's the best moment from the first NU party, where, having heard of Dale's champagne-sabring demonstration in Denmark, he was asked to confirm his skills also in Evanston-- and I had the honor to assist (clip borrowed from Jeff Ely on Cheaptalk). Here's a fantastic picture, the ultimate proof of Dale's champagne-sabring mastery! 
• An article with a link to a clip containing the best moments from the NU-wide reception for Dale; Janice Eberly and Bob Coen in particular prepared wonderful speeches. Some other NU press articles with video- and photo- links: Dale winning the Nobel and first reactions from NU Econ faculty colleagues, summary of and photos from the celebrations in Stockholm; see also some other Dale Mortensen photos from Stockholm and not only, collected on the Nobel Foundation site.
• There are also by-products of winning a Nobel prize, such as: getting a whisky bottle and-- if, justifiably, you thought that was no big deal-- a whole building named after him, at Aarhus University (with the participation at the opening, of the other Nobel Laureate at Aarhus, Jens Skou, and of the DK crown prince) ; a permanent parking spot and some other very visible (temporary) honors, at Northwestern University; hanging around with Mr. President-- good, better (my own photo capture of the framed pictures adorning the walls in the Mortensens' apartment). 
• You can also check out some more related pictures and videos that I collected (some belong to Aarhus University, some to Northwestern University, some to the Nobel Foundation, some are mine --including from the Econ Prize lectures, which I watched live, online, on my laptop, from Chicago-- I tried to specify everywhere whom they belong to  in order to observe copyright issues-- comment on this post or contact me if you observe anything wrong or unclear in that sense) and uploaded on my Flickr acount.
• Finally: the best way to learn (more) about last year's Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel is to browse through the corresponding pages on the Nobel Foundation's website. There is a great wealth of material in there (and more will be uploaded in the future, including, e.g., autobiographies of the Laureates), such as informative articles-- both brief and longer--, interviews, documentaries, photos etc. For instance, you can read what the 2010 Prize in Economic Sciences is about in a popular version for the larger audience (related, a "speed read" version; even an "illustrated" version); you can also go on and inspect the more detailed, technical, version with further references (or go through the concise three-page version by Rob Shimer); see also an interview with Per Krussell describing the work of the 2010 Econ Nobel Laureates; watch a documentary about the lives and work of the three Laureates; a video interview of the three Econ Prize winners with Adam Smith (including opinions about teaching and training their graduate students, I thought that was very informative!); watch the Econ Prize lectures of Mortensen, Diamond, Pissarides; the Banquet Speech of Dale (on behalf of the three Economics Prize winners) etc.

Econlinks: The Freudian interlude

• Seinfeld's spongeworthy Elaine, an unusual, limited-purpose --but very thorough-- option theory application, by the one and only Avinash Dixit.
•  All passé now, but hopefully you did pick your favorite Cupid. 
• New academic econ world order... but only if you fail to control for the quality of the journals  those papers are published in (my conjecture is that if you take only the top 5-10 journals, the US-EU average gap actually widened). Unfortunately, most European academic economists still believe that publishing  frequently into journals (almost) nobody can remember the names of, or reads, actually makes any difference (other than locally). Pretty Freudian, if you ask me.
•  Compensating wage differentials for sexual harassment? Via: Tabarrok's politically incorrect MR example. 
•  Ely has a good analysis of an (the?) ubiquitous situation arising in the econ (not necessarily  junior) job market. Hamermesh's post on Freakonomics is more related to that than you'd first think. 
• Finding the G-spot; next will be tasting it. 
• Massive reorganization of science funding in Europe... Something promised every four years or so; at least in that practice they are consistent. I don't really know why they aim to change these things ever so often, seemingly just to leave their mark, instead of making sure something actually works well, for once . Very European, and very Freudian...
•  Looks a bit shaky research-wise, but let's take it at face value for now: heterogenous effects of the scent of a woman (I guess Colonel Frank Slade had a simpler, yet practical, view of life). In all cases, a related (albeit equally shaky...) study reaches what looks to me like the right conclusions, which even Slade aka Pacino could adhere to: "Our investigation, however, demonstrates that implicitly preventing people from attending to desirable relationship alternatives may undermine, rather than bolster, the strength of that person’s romantic relationship" HT: Freakonomics.
  
  
  

Econlinks: In degrees of awesomeness

• Greg Mankiw seems to be arguing for a European-type separate master + PhD graduate Econ program-- such as those at LSE, Oxford, Pompeu Fabra, Tinbergen Institute, and (I guess) the newish Paris School of Economics entity-- rather than the US-type graduate PhD package, which comes with a (usually elective) master on the way (that is somewhat ironic, given the desire of the typical high-aspiring European place to ultimately emulate the US top places). In any case, assessing the total costs and benefits of these two alternatives remains a difficult empirical quest.
• Awesome grants, via Michael Nielsen.
• MR has linked to direct evidence that the History academic job market was hit way harder (e.g., this year lowest number of positions in a quarter century) than the Economics academic job market (and most likely than any other discipline's job market), which is almost back to the pre-recession level. (My wise friend Daniel, the historian of science with whom I talked several times about this, was absolutely right in his intuitive assessment) 
• Awesome (albeit late) discovery. After reading Gelman's WSJ story, I am decided to request a priori a "kill fee provision", whenever I am asked again to write stuff for various non-scientific outlets; I had similar experiences with a couple of Romanian (some, not surprisingly, now defunct...) newspapers, and, in particular, with the (very surprisingly, still surviving...) Aarhus School of Business internal press. Except that I ended up wasting time and not getting any 'kill fee' for it. Sometimes you have to learn from your own mistakes.
• Creative love song for Friedrich Hayek. Great, as so far Keynes seemed to get all the love (plus the hangovers, true): last bullet point. 
• Very well presented classic economic arguments for raising public college tuition fees by Gary Becker and Richard Posner. Digest them carefully, as they might appear counter-intuitive (witness the frequent nonsensical arguments against such tuition raises) even to intellectuals -- those without training in and/or understanding of Economics. 
• Awesome reply to comment in the scientific journal world. 
• As controversial as outputs of such activity might currently be, concretely gathering brains in such 'intellectual ventures'--in fact: literally leading to brainstorming-- is just awesome. The idea in itself is of course not new, Myhrvold just had the will-- and financial means!-- to implement it on such a scale

Econlinks: On crises. And opportunities

• Crises and opportunities in Balkan science policy (start, more). A word of caution for my Romanian pals, among whom a new risk of self-denying optimism-- expected to turn into the usual complacency-- appears contagious: con calma, this is at best a mediocre start (though, granted, a start it is). Not to mention that before reaching (competing with?) the West, the East needs to tackle (be inspired by?) the more (and increasingly so) academically attractive South.
• ...in which it is revealed that crises may hide huge opportunities. Earlier on the Kseniya phenomenon.
• A wealth of economic ideas? Taxing prostitution in the Netherlands and witchcraft in Romania.  Good luck.
• Chess crisis: what did they give Magnus to drink/smoke in Holland?! In words.
• Opportunities? Best predictors of the number of heterosexual sex partners.
• Somebody save Maastricht, tourists will desert it. 
• In praise of reading and fiction: Mario Vargas Llosa like no other. Also, hopes that the Literature Nobel Committee has finally decided to do a Nobel Committee job.

Econlinks: Of Maths, Efficiency, and Language

• Terry Tao brief and informative on the 2010 Fields medalists (Le Monde est aussi très heureux et honoré pour Ngo et Villani, "deux facettes de l'école mathématique française"). Read also Tao's intro to the winners of the Nevanlinna, Gauss and Chern prizes.
  

• Interesting interview of Michael Nielsen with Cameron Neylon on practical steps towards open science (and, as it turns out, on useful advice beyond that)
  

• Gelman (channelling Palko) on 'teaching yourself Mathematics' (that was better than his acting somewhat confused and perhaps too much as a-- his own--discipline zealot in commenting on Banerjee and Duflo's review)
  

• Landsburg on efficiency and honest goal stating in policy analysis (see also Reinhardt's NYT column that started Landsburg). And another critical instance/application of (in)efficiency, via Barro.
  

• Languages shaping the way we think (and why I would have no chances with geographic idioms like Guugu Yimithirr or truth-revealing languages like Matses)
  

• Last but not least: two ok obituaries for Tony Judt, one in The Economist and one in the NYRB.
  

Midwest's Northwestern

Scandinavian volcanic ash behind, I have just made it to Chicago; greetz from NU's Andersen Hall. Contact infos to be updated soon. Promised (and unpromised) blogposts will resume at some point, too.

PS. 26 Celsius and no wind in the Windy City...

Theory and practice, in theory and in practice

[...]

The playful mantras of our adolescence have become a way of life for later generations. At least in the ’60s we knew, whatever we said, that sex was about…sex. All the same, what followed is our fault. We—the left, academics, teachers—have abandoned politics to those for whom actual power is far more interesting than its metaphorical implications. Political correctness, gender politics, and above all hypersensitivity to wounded sentiments (as though there were a right not to be offended): this will be our legacy.

Why should I not close my office door or take a student to a play? If I hesitate, have I not internalized the worst sort of communitarian self-censorship—anticipating my own guilt long before I am accused and setting a pusillanimous example for others? Yes: and if only for these reasons I see nothing wrong in my behavior. But were it not for the mandarin self-assurance of my Oxbridge years, I too might lack the courage of my convictions—though I readily concede that the volatile mix of intellectual arrogance and generational exceptionalism can ignite delusions of invulnerability.

[...]

Superb historical/biographical account by Tony Judt, in "Girls! Girls! Girls!". A must read for all us elitists without scruples (some things will always be the same)... and anybody else who dares.

Weekend econlinks: The quest for perfection

• Gelman writes a useful overview on causality and statistical learning (caveat lector: I have only read through Angrist and Pischke's book, among the three Gelman mentiones; that one is very well written, but aimed at junior graduate students at best: hence, the book's tag "an empiricist's companion" is overselling it; and that has nothing to do with Josh Angrist kindly "advising" me to change my PhD topic/focus, sometime in my beginning graduate years, because 'nobody serious would be interested in structural modelling' :-)). I guess I would position myself more within the “minority view” set, represented here by Heckman (I wouldn’t say that is really a "minority" within Economics alone, by the way), but the usefulness of these debates cannot be questionned. And an outsider's (to Economics) opinion, such as Gelman's, is always more than welcome. Related, the WSJ talks about statistical time travelling to answer interesting counterfactuals; I have a feeling I'll stick to my structural guns for now...

• An excellent article on the junior meritocracy and the perils of standardized testing at very young ages. I share most of the worries expressed therein and indeed agree that the marshmallow test would say at least as much, and probably more, than a standardized intelligence test, in the case of toddlers. My general take is that young humans have much more complex personalities than usually warranted, in ways that elude any catch-all type of tests: after all, some even fall in love at 3 years old.

• The perfect, employer-focused, resume. Uses creativity somewhat differently than its more modern counterparts; I am sure Leonardo would be the one to get all the flyouts and job offers today, as his modern CV were obviously recession-proof.

• The ubiquitous problem with such academic et al rankings (which I brought over and over, including in earlier posts and articles, particularly concerning the academic ranking obsession in Romania, where they also-- still! -- have problems understanding that a publication 'anywhere in ISI' can be total nonsense) is that they try to rank overall, ie. over all disciplines, often over (too) long periods of time etc. The only meaningful hierarchies in science are those done on specific disciplines and, even better, subdisciplines, and over shorter periods of time, thus revealing top new places etc. Then, inter alia, one would not be able to claim that biological sciences are advantaged, since there would be a within-discipline focus. I haven’t heard a single serious (but plenty of marginal) scientist(s) stressing the relevance of the rank of her/his university/institution over that of her/his department/research group. Politicians and journalists should take note, too.

• The perfect chef? That is intriguing enough: I would certainly like to know whether one can trace his whereabouts anywhere around Chicago, in the near future. And the (allegedly) perfect place for the greatest wine-- Rekondo, San Sebastian-- for the far(ther) future.

• Gastronomic sacrilège: where have all the great cheeses gone-- roquefort, camembert, brie de Meaux, Saint-Félicien, gruyère, comté, münster, pont l’évêque, cantal, reblochon, tomme de Savoie, crottin de chavignol?! Worse, together with the cheese, soon gone might be oysters, and epsilon common sense... Quo vadis, France?

• Searching for the perfect chess player, human or machine... Put your money on AI; leave poker for humans.

• The most exciting scientific upshot I've heard about in a great while: explaining the tip-of-the-tongue moments. It comes finally clear (although at this stage I understand it is still just speculative/conjectural, and needs more testing) why polyglots (such as I like to consider myself...) have more of a problem in remembering specific words than people who use a single language: “ […] this kind of forgetfulness is due to infrequency of use; basically, the less often you use a word, the harder it is for your brain to access it." Good, I will feel much better when invoking 'lapsus memoriae' next time :-).

• The quest for the better, simpler, (American) living times: old, but superb Daily Show clip, via Tabarrok, on MR

• Economics research in perfect worlds.


• How very true, though my feeling is that the battle for the brightest junior (and not only) Economists is far from over. It is sadly not Europe overall that might offer an alternative for European economists (not a chance: for starters, Europe needs to cut that embarrasing red tape where academics depend on useless, worthless, ridiculous bureacrats, and to think of attractive real wages... ), but Canada and Australia, which look more and more like worthy competitors to the USA (top; the bulk is way worse than pretty much anywhere in western Europe) places (related, earlier).

Sunday night econlinks: Submit the paper right now!

• The Tilburg Univ "Econ Schools Ranking". It is indeed using a rather decent pool of journals (for period 2004-2008) and moreover, you can construct your own top by choosing subsets of those journals (such as top 5 only, if you wish). Not a bad idea.

• Tabarrok on the issue of publishing referee reports. This by no means new, in fact I also had a few thoughts on this, inspired by others (inter alia, former editors at top journals, e.g., the PNAS) who had had such ideas etc.

• A pity they decided to close before I managed to assess them... While I honestly hope Ferran Adrià will revisit this decision, I cannot help noticing that this simply paves the way for the would-be King of Restaurants: El Bulli is dead, long live Noma! I promise to tell you more about Noma in the first week of April.

• (A noteworthy) LEAP forward at Harvard (via Al Roth, at Market Design). The sort of interesting academic initiatives that European universities would be wise to imitate (hope dies last)...

• Art catastrophes happen everywhere, quite frequently.

• The sustainable, meat-eating, vegetarians. And, (in a funny way) related, a great "Hústorta" short movie, by a promising young director, Jakab-Benke Nándor (with thanks to Dan). By the way, this Toldi restaurant in Cluj Napoca, on Clinicilor 23, (tried for the first time with the occasion of my recent trip there) is indeed a place where they know how to prepare meat. In general. So if you want good meat, definitely a place to try. The problem is that there is not much else than meat there... Literally. And they could do so much more. The service and ambiance are pretty decent, though they could invest in more/better marketing (online included, for instance).

• An ancient rejection letter (and more background to it). Would be a pity if this were not submitted to Economic Inquiry (first bullet point), for instance.

• Good: Jay McInerney apparently takes over the wine column at WSJ. Let us hope he's gonna be as entertaining as in Bacchus & me (first bullet point).

• Time to put all these culinary-links-Chicago in order and save for future reference, before I get there (blame the EU Commission if I am late): Chicago's great culinary middle ground. Assuming I will not go every second day to Avec (which I've tried twice by now) and above (looking very much forward to).

• Posner and Becker on consumer competence, in particular about whether any regulation concerning obesity is necessary. Or proof of the fact that Becker has a Nobel in Economics, while Posner only believes he should get one...

• And, finally for today, under the heading "Econ work is never over", this is a perfect advice for people like myself: "Submit the paper right now! Submit the paper right now!" Brilliant. Via Jeff Ely, at Cheaptalk.

In Memoriam L.H. Chen

For those of us who met him, Long Hwa came across as the soft-spoken, thoughtful Taiwanese; curious, but skeptical, about all-things Western. He brought with him his Asian wisdom, and enriched everybody's horizon in a world where we care too much about details, and often ignore the essence. That doesn't mean he did not care about those details that, at times, sweeten our lives. Among other things, he taught some of us how to do proper dumplings-- operation where his two lovely teenage daughters showed us what comparative advantange in the dumpling-making art really means. (He also 'smuggled' a bottle of Taiwanese hard liquor in a top lounge/bar in Aarhus, just to prove to me, live, that their liquor is better than any European hard liquors; I still have the bottle, full-- I like that drink as much as I like palinka: it burns! :-) ). Next to being a perfect host in Aarhus several times, he was a great companion in several conferences and workshops attended together, among which memorable ones in Budapest, Oslo, Tallinn, Tokyo, and several places in Denmark.

Long Hwa wrote to me the following, after joining me and several colleagues to a dinner in a, as he called it, "burning-money restaurant", in Tallinn, Estonia, September last year:

Thank you for the burning-money restaurant. That is not a bad idea, to burn some money when we are alive. I mean that it is better than getting money in the underworld, when we pass away.

He always knew better.

I will greatly miss Long Hwa: the student, the teacher, the colleague, the Friend.

Tough times for young economists

The Economist has also been at the ASSA-Atlanta (this year I've been busy with the more scientific, and less applied, section). Some other potential (academic) implications of the 20+ % less vacancies in '09, compared to '08 (and earlier):

• the high time for places from Europe (in particular, Denmark and The Netherlands need to make the good moves right now...) to (seriously) tempt some (serious) top candidates (from both US and European prestigious schools). They do have to outmaneuver Canada in that realm (and-- to some extent-- the far East, Australia included).
• temporary postdoctoral positions might become more fashionable... even among economists
• prestigious postdoctoral grant programs have started to be really in demand (e.g. witness the increase in the number of applications for the-- several types of-- Marie Curie independent grants within the EU Commission FP7 program, ECO panel). Which made it more challenging for yours truly, but doable :-).
• per ensemble, it is not all bad news, indeed: some of these implications move us closer to the jobs market of junior natural scientists, which I believe is one positive consequence of the drama

Sunday night econlinks

• Good, Gelman is even more pissed off with Greenspun's to-a-large-extent-nonsense than I was: 9th bullet point.

• The culture of Old Europe (aka, new European Union...), via Gabi Istrate; I've also promised him I would carefully look at/comment on this: the promise is still there, the time-- not yet... :-).

• I am very curious how big this can/will get. After all, a whole Nobel might be at stake (I confess: I never really liked Gore, on any dimension; I still think he is submediocre or worse; however, I thought/still think that some of the climate guys/gals who won within the IPCC were more than decent...). This is not so much about scepticism (of any kind/degree), but first and foremost about scientific honesty. Seemingly a very rare quality today.

• The current world chess champ was in Romania some days ago, but nobody within the national mass media seems to have noticed. Of course not, they are all busy with one of the most pathetic presidential elections ever; they always manage to keep themselves busy with the least important things.

• The battle of the IT giants takes every possible form. In case you're wondering whom I am putting my money on, here's something to help you; these guys seem to know what's important for tomorrow: a small step in that direction with a (preliminary version of) automatic captioning for YouTube .

• I guess I am not in such of an intimate relationship with Tokyo after all (despite this...), since I didn't manage to meet any of the city's "groundbreakers" (though ok, fine, between me and you only: the truth is that I've been playing hard to get with Tao Okamoto)

• Only reinforces one point Easterly (and a minority of others) has been stressing all the time; this is how development should be done: help them to help themselves.

• The underrated Economist: A.C. Pigou.

• The research agenda of some of my LMDG colleagues: enter Rasmus Lentz and co-authors.

• "[s]urely the biggest police action we have ever had in Danish history" or one of the rare occasions when I am glad that I am not closer to Copenhagen...

Econlinks

• The top 100 global thinkers, according to Foreign Policy. With the usual caveats: some should clearly not be there, others are missing (even from the first 5 positions, say...) etc. Highly subjective, but well, a top...

• Terry Tao makes a nice and concise exposition of some of the most beautiful parts at the intersection of Mathematics and Theoretical Physics (oh, nostalgia...), including quick reviews of classical and quantum mechanics.

• Some super nice games/quizzes via Steve Landsburg. Indeed be careful, some are highly addictive. For instance, The Paradoxion Express.

• Probably London's very first Indian restaurant (related, earlier- 2nd bullet point). With thanks to Daniel!

• The way forward for art: private funding with the right incentives for donors/funders. I think this ought to work also for universities, including public European ones... which are notoriously bad at this task, as we all know (with the important caveat that, especially in these European universities, the persons in charge of alumni networks and the like should really be the brains and not the (sub)mediocrities-- which seems to be the default in a lot of such places, even beyond the obvious fact that these are typically people with more /a lot more spare time; perhaps they/we should understand/decide that this is too important a job to leave to those with time to "spare" on it...-- only the brains can attract other brains and...their money).

Weekend econlinks

• Sharing information in scientific research: yes/no/when. Interesting, but the analysis here is applicable only in the context of some sciences (arguably, not most). Moreover, sharing by means of co-authorship is discussed at best indirectly (if one is willing to expand on their repeated interaction game thread...). But my major "disagreement" has to do with their upshot: my conjecture is that know-how sharing is, ceteris paribus, over all disciplines, U-shaped in the degree of competition (and, since I also believe that, overall, very high competition dominates very low competition equilibria, you already know what my prior of the ideal is). Remains however an open empirical question for now.

• We are what we ate: Tony Judt's culinary autobiography. Reminds me that (fortunately) I have only got to know top Indian restaurants in London (in general, Londonese Indian cuisine is probably, up to now, my favourite in the world; though surely there is a variance): a lot must have changed.

• Stanford also jumped in Google's bandwagon of online (dissertation) publishing.

• David Brooks on "the other education": concise and well written. I usually call this second education "exposure". The vast majority of people I've met hardly had any.

• Hyperopia... as a concern.

• Cheaptalk on the election process of Econometric Society Fellows. Not extremely surprising or, for that matter, singular within Economics; after all, they almost forgot Hurwicz for the Nobel Prize..., for largely the same reason: most of the people who used to propose and lobby for him died at some point... I think Ely is right: focus on the young people-- at least that would be an attempt to solve the problem for the future... And yes, for potential candidates why wouldn't you just look to the Econometrica editions (Lones Smith's suggestion in the comments)...

• Music critic review: mode d'emploi, by John Adams.

• Sex toy research. Or Ariely in the quest for another Nobel Ig :-). Goes without saying that I am extremely interested in the results.

• Philip Greenspun on universities and economic growth; via Razvan, on Ad Astra. First impression: he writes much and he misunderstands a lot; particularly the Economics of it all (no, he is not qualified to understand what is clear and what is controversial in Clark's book, to give but one example). Also, doesn't seem to realize (not sure whether qualifying this as voluntary misrepresentation would be better or worse...) the difference between statistical and anectodal evidence. And, in general, he doesn't seem to have decided whether his target is to make people incensed at or interested in what he has to say. BUT, although he errs nearly everywhere else, I agree that a. much change is needed in the way teaching in most universities is done nowadays (see also the 3rd bullet point here on opinions on the value of college education & all that jazz); b. he has some very decent ideas there (others had/have them too) and c. these changes would not cost too much, with the benefit very likely to outweigh that cost. (Probably) Inadvertently, Greenspun is actually arguing for a "Japanese approach" (which the Japanese apply to both teaching and on-the-job training): give a rather broad ("customer-based", if you want some context) training, be able to/ focus on study/work in teams, always help the new/junior ones etc. etc. There is however a known problem with the (standard) Japanese perspective to (life-long) education that I am not sure Greenspun is aware of... Simply put, you really do not want to give no/wrong incentives at the very top of the ability distribution.

• One of the two prediction markets on the 2009 Romanian Presidential Election is now closed and cashed-out (the other one is also "closed", but waiting for the final results on Dec 6th), as the official First Round results of that election are out. Several participants won (virtual) money (yours truly included), but the congratulations go to Dan, as he is the one who won the most (a fortune!). Which means that he is obviously going to pay for the (very good: e.g. the French on this list?) wine, with the occasion of our next meeting :-).

On Noncommutative Geometry, String Theory, and the EU vs. US academe

All this in a 2005 interview with Alain Connes, in Iran (initial link to the PDF of the interview via Tyler Cowen, on MR).

First, I think this is a very welcome, very open interview (several questions/comments are just great, congrats to the interviewers!) and it is extremely interesting to see the opinion of this great mathematician (inter alia, Fields Medalist in 1982) on a wide range of topics. The pros: I completely agree with Connes's view on the distinct (ir)relevance of String Theory for Mathematics and respectively, Physics. I also like his (humorous) detachment from being considered the guru of NCG (of which unfortunately I know currently epsilon, albeit once I was almost sure this is what I wanted to do...) and from the tendency of always looking for / looking up to the one mastermind, in general, in any (sub)discipline. So no more on those, read for yourselves in the transcript of the interview. What I don't quite agree with is summarized below:

• resources (money) in research are not important (Connes's context has to do with the large interest/funding in Bio-Mathematics; he actually says "nothing", which I take as far stronger than "not important":-)): to the extent that it shapes incentives, I think it is actually very important. Intrinsic motivation is (the most) relevant, but it is not everything. The marginal (very able-- let us simplify) scientist can be moved into one direction or another by means of designing proper (or improper; but then again, who is to decide what is proper/improper in the context: I think we ought to take the view that lots of money is being thrown in one direction, because there is a lot of interest in that particular direction) extrinsic rewards. That being said, I personally (also) think there are a lot more interesting things in/to Maths than Biomaths :-).
• the European academic system is better than the US one. Hmmm, this is an endless debate and, as always, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Inter alia, it goes back to whether you need/want tenure or not in the academe (see for instance such a debate I've earlier linked to, especially within Economics) and to what goals you expect researchers to meet. And this also goes beyond one or another discipline, although it is perhaps interesting to discuss it indeed in the light of fundamental Mathematics, given its very abstract nature. Now, Connes believes that a system such as the French CNRS (which possibly is in the process of changing since 2005, when this interview took place) is perfect for mathematicians working on extremely complicated issues, that take years and years and years, since they are insulated from being subjected to those "n publications" requirement per year and in general from the eternal harassment of frequently showing how you compare to your peers, something specific to the top US institutions (Connes dismisses that the US places are ultimately inherently better in producing top scientists, because they get all the top European people-- not (entirely) true and to a great extent working eventually against his thesis, e.g. need to justify preferences of those very high European achievers for the US places, but let us not get also into that). The potential problem (sacrifice), as acknowledged by Connes, is the cost of such a practice, given that a lot of people might end up not producing anything and that the vast majority of them will be very far from getting Fields Medals or similar recognition among their peers... I say that the main problem is who bears that cost, namely the taxpayers here; and the public (not all of them having the same goals as Connes or as the specific, minority, group of the scientists, in general) is justified in knowing and assessing (whenever it so pleases) where its money is going and what precisely it pays for (if the funding is private, all this discussion has a completely different flavour-- remark that the US top academic places are privately funded, while all European examples Connes mentiones are public institutions; in my view, this again tips the balance towards the US academia). Related, but extremely surprising, Connes seems to be nostalgic after the Soviet Union academic system, but I think he deeply confuses things-- anyway, let us just say for the sake of this brief post that, fortunately, France was never quite like the Soviet Union, despite its tendency to lean extreme left, particularly within its academe... As for the claim that the Soviets would have been far ahead US and everybody else, if their system remained in place, I guess we'll never know (though I have opposite priors). And I think it is better we don't... So I am rather dissapointed that one of my idols in Mathematics has/had (this was '05) such, hmm: uninformed, views. But then again, I've always thought Economics (Not Politics. Politics is just a surface, not relevant in the long run, ultimately all boils down to Economics-- really!) is far less intuitive than Mathematics or Theoretical Physics :-).
  

I am sure one can go on and on, but I trust the main ideas are all outlined above (read also between the lines).

The new Danish ranking of journals

Ridiculous, if you ask me (needless to state, this is a very personal opinion). Unfortunately, in Economics (you find that category under "Samfundsøkonomi" in the linked pdf), there will be many years till Denmark will catch up with the best places in the Netherlands, for instance (see here an Economics journal ranking of the Tinbergen Institute (TI) , which has its imperfections-- such as Journal of Finance placed in the 'AA' category... -- but it is way way better), in competitiveness, attitude in this context etc. Not to mention the top places in US or UK (NB: the non-existence/ non-marketing of an explicit journal ranking on the (web)sites of those departments does not mean the non-existence of a very strict, informal hierarchy -- decisive in hiring and, especially, promotion decisions--, in many ways similar in spirit to the one of the TI linked above!).

The simple test the folks who made up this hierarchy (there was and still is a lot of disagreement among them apparently, this solution seems to be a compromise solution) should(have) subject(ed) themselves to is the following: if you are in the process of deciding where to submit the best paper you ever produced as yet, i.e. something you are satisfied with and very proud of, would you submit it to Econometrica, AER, JPE, QJE, ReStud, or to any of the other places (yes, some extremely good, much better than others paired with them..., but just somewhat below the very top category), which are placed in the same category in this ranking (if I were them, I would ask this question to any potential candidate I would consider hiring in my Danish Econ department). That first hierarchy level (labeled "2" in the pdf) can/should be further split in at least 3 sublevels (even the general editors of those journals in question would all agree; I doubt they were asked when this ranking was made up...). I won't even touch on assessing the fact that the rest of the journals were all bunched together in a second hierarchical level (labeled "1" in the document). This is not about my being obsessed with rankings, this is about having an idea about scientific quality. And about proper incentives.

PS. The hilarious thing is that some would like to add even more journals that nobody reads/cites to these two categories.