1a Editie a Conferintei Economistilor Romani din Mediul Academic din Strainatate (ERMAS). Comunicat al Coordonatorilor.

La adresele web http://www.conferinta.econacademia.net si respectiv http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/ermas2014 veti gasi programul recent actualizat al Primei Editii a Conferintei Stiintifice a Economistilor Romani din Mediul Academic din Strainatate (ERMAS), gazduita de Universitatea Babes-Bolyai (UBB), Facultatea de Stiinte Economice si Gestiunea Afacerilor (FSEGA), la Cluj-Napoca, intre 18-22 August 2014 (potentiale completari/ actualizari pana la versiunea finala sunt posibile). Link-uri directe (PDFs) la structura generala a programului, si respectiv la programul detaliat pe sesiuni.

Inregistrarea tuturor celor interesati sa participe in audienta conferintei se face exclusiv prin formularul UBB-FSEGA http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/ermas2014/formular.php pana la data maxima de 30 iunie 2014. 

La conferinta ERMAS 2014 vor prezenta lucrari stiintifice si/sau vor participa in diferite dezbateri de interes public (vedeti si mai jos, si detaliat in program) in jur de 50 de economisti romani de succes (realizat sau potential), afiliati unora dintre cele cele mai renumite universitati sau institutii de cercetare, in domeniul stiintelor economice, din. e.g., SUA, Canada, sau tari ale Uniunii Europene, incluzand institutii din Romania. Pe langa acestia, invitati speciali in sesiuni tip masa-rotunda/ dezbatere deschisa sunt cativa reprezentanti cheie ai mediului de politici economice, precum si ai invatamantului superior si cercetarii, din Romania. Conferinta este o premiera absoluta in Romania, atat din perspectiva stiintelor economice, cat si a oricaror discipline stiintifice (plus popularizare/ dezbatere stiintifica), in general. Cateva sute de persoane, cu predilectie din mediul academic, dar si din alte medii precum cel antreprenorial, guvernamental, ONG, mass-media, vor participa, in expectanta, in audienta conferintei (cateva zeci fiind deja inregistrate).

Pe langa partea principala a programului conferintei, constand in prezentarile de lucrari stiintifice contribuite sau invitate din sesiunile paralele, sau prezentarile "keynote" din sesiunile plenare, atragem explicit atentia asupra unor sesiuni speciale, de potential interes general:

- sesiune de dezbatere pe politici economice de mare interes pentru Romania: luni dupa-masa, 18 august

- sesiune de sfaturi pentru tinerii si mai putin tinerii economisti: marti seara, 19 august

- sesiune dezbatere despre starea, politica si managementul cercetarii stiintifice din Romania, cu focus pe cercetarea economica: miercuri seara, 20 august

- sesiune de scurte comunicari-rezumat de cercetare folosind date din/ direct relevante pentru Romania: joi dimineata, 21 august

- sesiune despre viitoarele editii ale conferintei ERMAS- si alte activitati relevante ale Econacademia: joi seara, 21 august

Informatii complete despre initiativa, inclusiv despre tintele si asteptarile de termen scurt si lung ale conferintei ERMAS (in expectanta, anuala), sunt disponibile pe http://www.conferinta.econacademia.net. Pentru orice noutati si actualizari: https://twitter.com/econacademia sau http://www.noutati.econacademia.net.  

Toate aceste informatii se pot evident disemina liber (eventual adaptat corespunzator), prin orice mediu de comunicare. 

Asteptam sa va intalnim la ERMAS 2014,

Coordonatorii ERMAS 2014: Sebastian Buhai (Stockholm University), Mihai Copaciu (Banca Nationala a Romaniei), Cosmin Ilut (Duke University) si Cristian Litan (Universitatea Babes-Bolyai)

PS. In momentul acesta-- deci la pranz, 6 iunie 2014-- mai sunt exact 5 locuri ramase pentru persoane potential interesate de a participa in cursul asociat ERMAS 2014, "Big Data Econometrics" (BDE), instructor Otilia Boldea, Tilburg University. Inscrierea se face in baza principiului "first come, first served", pana maxim la 30 iunie. Detalii complete despre curs, inclusiv modalitatea de inscriere (atentie: inscrierea la curs e SEPARATA de inregistrarea ca participant in audienta conferintei; in particular, toate persoanele inscrise la BDE, si interesate de conferinta, trebuie sa se inregistreze si in audienta conferintei, folosind formularul UBB-FSEGA mentionat mai sus; mutatis mutandis, persoanele inregistrate in audienta conferintei nu sunt automat inscrise si la curs, inscrierea la curs presupunand in prealabil primirea unui email confirmare de la instructorul cursului, conform instructiunilor)

Branding Romania: "Un Gigel in plus nu mai conteaza"

Evenimentul de fata find mult prea important pentru un tweet, un blogpost se impune.

Breaking News

Andrei Plesu este castigatorul detasat al concursului 'Branding Romania' cu intraductibila, sui generis mioritica, magistrala contributie "Un Gigel in plus nu mai conteaza"  (Ce e drept, concurenta nu a fost chiar fabuloasa.)

Despre economia Romaniei (si nu numai). Fragmente dintr-un interviu nepublicat

Cat de “negru” considerati ca va fi 2012 din punct de vedere economico/financiar si cum ar putea fi afectata Romania?

Nu avem, din nefericire, motive sa jubilam. Pe fondul deteriorarii perspectivei economice in general, si datorita crizei din zona euro in particular, 2012 va fi incert si pentru Romania.  Dupa cum stim la ora asta, toate agentiile globale au revizuit in scadere previziunile privind evolutia economiilor europene, din eurozona si din afara ei, incluzand aici FMI, Banca Mondiala, BERD etc. Fara sa dau prea multe detalii asupra a ceea ce puteti gasi practic in toate aceste rapoarte, fac o scurta trecere in revista a catorva dintre aspectele economice care ar putea fi direct afectate in Romania (NB: discutii mai specifice despre unele aspecte sunt prezente si in alte parti din acest interviu):

-       exporturile; criza eurozonei ar putea afecta cei mai importanti parteneri comerciali ai Romaniei (peste 70% din comertul exterior—ca volum exporturi plus importuri—este cu statele UE, in particular Italia, Germania si Franta), reducand substantial perspectiva exporturilor romanesti, unde nu stateam pe roze nici pana acum (deficitul comercial in Octombrie 2011 era de 747 milioane de euro, de unde am “revenit” de la mai rau)

-       accesul la credite; exista posibilitatea ca bancile straine (care detin 80% din activele bancare din Romania) sa isi reduca critic expunerea pe pietele emergente din centrul si estul Europei pe fondul crizei din eurozona (o restrangere substantiala a creditarii s-a facut deja in trimestrul trei al 2011).

-       riscul financiar; tot prin relatiile financiar-bancare importante cu banci expuse crizei euro-zonei, varianta (“spread”-ul) CDS-urilor ar putea sa creasca si mai mult (in cazul Romaniei s-a marit deja cu peste dublul mediei caracteristice economiilor emergente), implicand incertitudine mult marita pe piata financiara

Catalizat de impactul asupra dimensiunilor economice de mai sus, se pot anticipa si consecinte negative indirecte, de exemplu nevoia de noi masuri de austeritate bugetara, avand in vedere ca avem deja  imprumuturi foarte mari (transa recenta de 5 bilioane de euro de la FMI adaugandu-se imprumutului de 27 bilioane garantat de FMI si UE in 2009) si nivelul deficitului bugetar maxim e fixat, conform acordurilor cu creditorii; inrautatirea indicatorilor pietei muncii (lipsa noilor locuri de munca, somaj in crestere, salarii inghetate, ajutoare sociale anulate s.a.m.d); reducerea bugetelor alocate educatiei si cercetarii, unde suntem mult sub tintele propuse si incredibil de mult sub cele optime s.a.m.d. Cert este ca va fi nevoie de eforturi mari pentru a sustine o crestere economica pozitiva in viitorul apropiat. Discut in finalul acestui interviu despre masuri implementabile in viitorul apropiat care ar putea ameliora aceasta perspectiva economica.

 [...]

Am vazut ca sunteti la curent cu ceea ce se intampla in Romania (am vazut pe blog ca ati postat un editorial a lui Tapalaga).  Care ar putea fi cateva masuri pentru evitarea unei recesiuni in Romania (asa cum multi se astepta pentru 2012)?

In lipsa spatiului, ma voi limita doar la doua categorii principale (plus cateva subcategorii) de masuri pe care le consider importante pentru viitorul apropiat.

-       Guvern de tehnocrati si implicare mult mai mare a electoratului (legislativului). In momentul in care ar fi nevoie de ei mai mult ca niciodata, echipa guvernamentala nu are un singur economist credibil. In plus, alegatorii nu sunt implicati deloc in decizii economice care ii afecteaza imediat. Sa facem o paralela intre doua democratii-- in teorie ambele functionale. In SUA, Presedintele isi ia foarte in serios rolul de se consulta (in practica, de a urma recomandarile)  pe orice tema economica cu echipa sa de consilierii economici (“Council of Economic Advisers”, i.e. CEA) si de convinge publicul/legislativul asupra necesitatii unor masuri recomandate de acestia; pozitia este perfect descrisa de citatul “spuneti-mi ce e corect, si ma voi gandi cum sa vand asta cel mai bine” (conversatie publicata intr-un memoriu CEA, intre Presedintele Obama si Christina Romer, fosta sefa a CEA). In Romania, politicile economice se decid in aparenta fara consultarea expertilor si se implementeaza fara implicarea alegatorilor (alternativ, a reprezentatilor acestora in Parlament), prin “asumarea raspunderii” Guvernului; pozitia Executivului (si a Presedintiei) aduce deci mai mult cu “nu va bateti capul, stim noi bine ce facem”[1].

-       Incetarea reducerii cheltuielilor bugetare si axarea pe reforme structurale pentru crestere durabila pe termen lung, in (cvasi)recesiuni. Multe din masurile de consolidare fiscala de pana acum, chiar si cele justificabile pe termen mediu si lung, au fost implementate prea brusc, la momentul inoportun. Reducerea cheltuielilor bugetare in perioade de recesiune curenta sau anticipata este controversata: nu exista o minoritate consistenta de economisti care sa le recomande fara rezerve. Desi nu avem un model teoretic cu previziuni precise, cele mai robuste rezultate empirice arata ca austeritatea in episoade de recesiune a fost urmata de episoade de prelungire, sau chiar agravare a recesiunii. In lipsa unor concluzii decisive in privinta cauzalitatii, avem suficiente motive sa anticipam efecte negative; ori cand vorbim de politici economice, bunastarea cetatenilor este obiectivul prioritar. Accentul trebuie pus pe reforme structurale de relansare economica, care sa induca o crestere economica durabila. Foarte succint, exemple de asemenea masuri necesare in Romania ar fi (pe langa masurile neimplementate de mai jos, unele au fost implementate doar superficial/partial si trebuie continuate/intensificate; in alte cazuri unele reforme s-au implementat exact pe dos, vezi de exemplu reducerea unor cheltuieli de finantare a cercetarii ca parte a pachetului de masuri de austeritate etc.):

o    Reforme ale pietei muncii. In contextul Romaniei, masurile pe partea cererii fortei de munca sunt in prezent prioritare, intre ele stimularea crearii de noi locuri de munca. Pe de alta parte masuri de stimulare a participarii in forta de munca ar trebui sa ramana in agenda tot timpul (superficial unele au fost implementate; de remarcat insa aici ca masuri gen reducerea ajutoarelor de somaj in perioade de recesiune, cand factual problema e lipsa locurilor de munca, dovedesc orice altceva decat competenta si responsabilitate sociala).

o    Reforme de privatizare. Privatizarea marilor companii de stat a fost de mult discutata, mult promisa, dar inca neefectuata; costurile intarzierilor sunt uriase. Privatizarea sistemului medical (NB facuta inteligent: copierea sistemului olandez sau elvetian “dupa ureche” nu e o solutie) este un alt exercitiu care trebuie finalizat etc.

o  Reforme de incurajare a antreprenoriatului. Masuri din aceasta categorie includ exemple gen stimularea prin deduceri de taxe in primii ani de activitate antreprenoriala, reducerea birocratiei necesare deschiderii unei afaceri proprii (in iunie 2011 eram pe locul 63 in lume din punct de vedere a cat de usor este sa devii antreprenor si pe locul 72 in clasificarea a cat de usor este sa functionezi ca antreprenor; cred ca se poate mai bine)

o    Reforme pentru R&D. Include cresterea investitiei in activitatile de cercetare si dezvoltare (R&D), si, implicit, in adaptarea si sustinerea invatamantului pentru a produce capitalul uman necesar acestor activitati.

o    Masuri de stimulare a investitiilor private din strainatate. Atragerea de capital privat este in prezent esentiala pentru Romania. Alternative existente pentru investitii (publice si/sau private) precum fondurile europene structurale si de coeziune (chiar la o rata de absorbtie de multe ori mai mare decat cea de pana acum) sau genul de parteneriate public-privat in derulare nu sunt suficiente sau neaparat sustenabile.

Puteti citi intreg documentul (10 intrebari + raspunsuri) in format PDF aici. 

---

[1] Citatul e imaginar, insa din categoria celor reale oferite de Executiv, si mai ales de Presedintie. Un exemplu elocvent din discursul recent  al domnului Basescu la investirea noului guvern: “Nu pot cere unui popor sa inteleaga prompt ce trebuie sa faca un guvern pentru ca tara sa nu se prabuseasca”.

Facts and fantasy about the financial crisis

I find it the most lucid summary (and criticism) of almost everything influential that has been published on the financial crisis so far. Some of the books are reviewed too briefly, and some newer ones are completely omitted, but nonetheless I think this is the most concise and useful general-purpose article written on the crisis as yet. Currently you can download Andrew Lo's "Reading about the financial crisis: A 21-Book Review" from his website (PDF version dated Jan 9, 2012). It is prepared for the JEL-- hence you should be able to find it also in one of the their next issues, perhaps in an updated version.

A special mention: the "Fact and Fantasy" section of the article covers the startling misinterpretations (some of them still awaiting to be corrected!), by several prominent academics, policy makers, and journalists, of the 2004 change in the SEC Rule 15c3-1 concerning leverage restrictions of certain financial institutions. It is beyond alarming how fast and easy some of these errors propagate even among what-ought-to-be-connaisseurs-- and how long and hard it takes for them to be discovered and debunked thereafter. The following edifying quote from Lo's article cannot be emphasized enough: 

[...] Only the most neurotic of academics would dig further to attempt to refute a "fact" that jibes with his or her intuition and preconceptions. This example should serve as a cautionary tale for all of us, and underscores the critical need to collect, check, and accumulate data from which more accurate inferences can then be drawn. Without the immutable hard platform of objective facts on which we can build an accurate narrative of the crisis that stands the test of time, there's little hope for scientific progress as the waves of public opinion toss our perspective in one direction or another. This is one of the most compelling reasons to read more than one account of the financial crisis, and to seek out those books that may not agree with our preconceptions, just in case we've been inadvertently misled through faulty "facts".

* update: the selected quote above is from the October 24, 2011 version of Lo's article; it is slightly different in the Jan 9, 2012 PDF version linked above. I have a preference for the older version, hence I leave that one here.

My Nobel Econ 2011 prediction

I say "Ernst Fehr, Matthew Rabin, and Richard Thaler for their contributions to behavioral economics" (I even bet 3$ on this, but for some yet unclear reason that pool has closed, with my money returned). In any case, I think it would be highly suspicious if I got it right also this time, given I got it perfectly last year and almost perfectly the year before that.

PS. By the way, as you must have noticed, although I've momentarily reduced the frequency of my blogposts, I've been posting brief impressions on my twitter. 

Jazz Impressions of Japan

The flawless Koto Song is my newest 'creative background piece': works miracles for theory modeling! For running regressions give Tokyo Traffic a shot.

More on Brubeck's best album ever (with some credits to my jazz-expert friend Dean). 

Earlier on Brubeck's genius. 

Earlier on my (incipient) fascination with Japan's culture. 

More matching in Chicago

My research whereabouts: after an inspiring matching workshop at Kellogg, Northwestern: "Matching: findings, flaws and future" (workshop schedule in PDF)  a month and a half ago, I will attend another a priori very interesting conference on matching at the Milton Friedman Institute, University of Chicago, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow: "Matching and price theory" (conference schedule in PDF). The overlap in the two programs appears to be only one paper-- and that paper is the one I liked most last time, hence Philipp can safely go on presenting it again :-).

Funniest dating ad ever?

I hate you all. I hate London. I hate books. I hate critics. I hate this magazine, I hate this column and I hate all the goons who appear in it. But if you have large breasts, are younger than 30 and don't want to talk about the novel you're 'writing' I'll put that aside for approximately two hours one Saturday afternoon in January. Man, 33. Box no. 7810.

--David Rose: Sexually I'm More of a Switzerland--

 

My whereabouts

After a thought-provoking lecture yesterday by Daron Acemoglu on "Why Nations Fail" at Kellogg (if/when the previous link is replaced, you should be able to find the information on Acemoglu's lecture here)*, I am soon off to Vancouver, attending/presenting at the 2011 Society of Labor Economists (SOLE) meeting. Looking forward to the usually interesting SOLE conference, and to what I am being told should be a great city!

* I also attended Al Roth's excellent talk on "Market Design" a year ago, part of the same impressive Nancy Schwartz Memorial Lecture series; the more recent ones are all available in video format on the site; do not miss them!

Econlinks: The Dale T. Mortensen Nobel edition

• The most recent event under this heading is the Northwestern conference in the honor of Dale-- with some very good and some not so good presentations...-- featuring also some  very (and some not so) entertaining speeches by former Mortensen students, co-authors, advisers etc, either at the dinner at the Northwestern Allen Center on Friday evening, or at the drinks & snacks session at Beverly and Dale's splendid home (photo with Ija on their balcony) on Saturday evening. Read also this Northwestern Univ. article about the event.  If you ask me, Guido Menzio had both the most interesting presentation ("Social Insurance for Frictional Wage Inequality") and by far the best speech (let us call it "Guido, may the Force be with you!"); unfortunately, neither of them is available online, too bad if you were not there.
• Now rewind: I have first mentioned about Dale's Prize here, as some of us really were with Dale in Denmark when he got the magic phone call (this happened after I had correctly predicted Diamond, Mortensen and Pissarides winning the Prize in Economic Sciences, the day before). I'll try to organize the following links on chronological order since.
• Listen to the initial phone interview between the Nobel Foundation's Adam Smith and Dale (you might have heard about the funny Adam Smith phone call to Ned Phelps's home some years before; people are somewhat more prepared to Adam Smith calling them since...).
• Here's Dale's answering machine message about the Prize to Beverly Mortensen: have your sound on as well-- this is super funny.
• I have uploaded on Flickr one of my short videoclips from the John Abowd seminar in Aarhus, at the Aarhus School of Business (ASB), Dep of Econ building, which started with champagne for Dale (unfortunately the sound seems to have gotten lost on the way...). All spontaneusly organized my myself, Valerie and Frederic: I think we managed quite well. I even made sure these visiting guys were not missing the start of the party (even if Shimer thought I am trying to trick him to get him to the seminar--duh..., Rob!...-- when I called with the Dale-won-the-Nobel news)
• The first Aarhus Univ journalist & photographer arrived for Dale (hallway of the ASB's Frichshuset) and here's a very first Dale video interview, just outside the Frichshuset, in which Dale tells the Danish reporter that yes, the Danes can also feel proud because of his winning the Prize.
• After a first full day of interviews and photo sessions for Dale, the first dinner party takes place at one of my very favorite restaurant in Aarhus, Klassisk 65. Thanks to Valerie for helping me with the organization (we had planned the dinner at Klassisk for that day in any event; with Dale winning the Prize in that day, we had to try hard to include more people on the reservation list, and plan in  much more detail). Watch the official TV2 documentary (very slow, be patient) from the place, including the by now famous Dale-sabring-the-champagne-bottle moment(s). I uploaded one of my own videoclips from Klassisk as well (again no sound). 
• A nice video capturing Dale's returning to Chicago from Denmark, with family and the NU brass band welcoming him at O'Hare. 
• One advantage of being  affiliated both with Aarhus and Northwestern is that I got to participate in all the Dale Mortensen-parties! Obviously Northwestern had to rise up to the occasion, and I think they managed well: there were several events, including two parties--one Department of Economics-wide, one NU-wide -- organized in relation to Dale's winning the Prize. Here's the best moment from the first NU party, where, having heard of Dale's champagne-sabring demonstration in Denmark, he was asked to confirm his skills also in Evanston-- and I had the honor to assist (clip borrowed from Jeff Ely on Cheaptalk). Here's a fantastic picture, the ultimate proof of Dale's champagne-sabring mastery! 
• An article with a link to a clip containing the best moments from the NU-wide reception for Dale; Janice Eberly and Bob Coen in particular prepared wonderful speeches. Some other NU press articles with video- and photo- links: Dale winning the Nobel and first reactions from NU Econ faculty colleagues, summary of and photos from the celebrations in Stockholm; see also some other Dale Mortensen photos from Stockholm and not only, collected on the Nobel Foundation site.
• There are also by-products of winning a Nobel prize, such as: getting a whisky bottle and-- if, justifiably, you thought that was no big deal-- a whole building named after him, at Aarhus University (with the participation at the opening, of the other Nobel Laureate at Aarhus, Jens Skou, and of the DK crown prince) ; a permanent parking spot and some other very visible (temporary) honors, at Northwestern University; hanging around with Mr. President-- good, better (my own photo capture of the framed pictures adorning the walls in the Mortensens' apartment). 
• You can also check out some more related pictures and videos that I collected (some belong to Aarhus University, some to Northwestern University, some to the Nobel Foundation, some are mine --including from the Econ Prize lectures, which I watched live, online, on my laptop, from Chicago-- I tried to specify everywhere whom they belong to  in order to observe copyright issues-- comment on this post or contact me if you observe anything wrong or unclear in that sense) and uploaded on my Flickr acount.
• Finally: the best way to learn (more) about last year's Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel is to browse through the corresponding pages on the Nobel Foundation's website. There is a great wealth of material in there (and more will be uploaded in the future, including, e.g., autobiographies of the Laureates), such as informative articles-- both brief and longer--, interviews, documentaries, photos etc. For instance, you can read what the 2010 Prize in Economic Sciences is about in a popular version for the larger audience (related, a "speed read" version; even an "illustrated" version); you can also go on and inspect the more detailed, technical, version with further references (or go through the concise three-page version by Rob Shimer); see also an interview with Per Krussell describing the work of the 2010 Econ Nobel Laureates; watch a documentary about the lives and work of the three Laureates; a video interview of the three Econ Prize winners with Adam Smith (including opinions about teaching and training their graduate students, I thought that was very informative!); watch the Econ Prize lectures of Mortensen, Diamond, Pissarides; the Banquet Speech of Dale (on behalf of the three Economics Prize winners) etc.