1a Editie a Conferintei Economistilor Romani din Mediul Academic din Strainatate (ERMAS). Comunicat al Coordonatorilor.

La adresele web http://www.conferinta.econacademia.net si respectiv http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/ermas2014 veti gasi programul recent actualizat al Primei Editii a Conferintei Stiintifice a Economistilor Romani din Mediul Academic din Strainatate (ERMAS), gazduita de Universitatea Babes-Bolyai (UBB), Facultatea de Stiinte Economice si Gestiunea Afacerilor (FSEGA), la Cluj-Napoca, intre 18-22 August 2014 (potentiale completari/ actualizari pana la versiunea finala sunt posibile). Link-uri directe (PDFs) la structura generala a programului, si respectiv la programul detaliat pe sesiuni.

Inregistrarea tuturor celor interesati sa participe in audienta conferintei se face exclusiv prin formularul UBB-FSEGA http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/ermas2014/formular.php pana la data maxima de 30 iunie 2014. 

La conferinta ERMAS 2014 vor prezenta lucrari stiintifice si/sau vor participa in diferite dezbateri de interes public (vedeti si mai jos, si detaliat in program) in jur de 50 de economisti romani de succes (realizat sau potential), afiliati unora dintre cele cele mai renumite universitati sau institutii de cercetare, in domeniul stiintelor economice, din. e.g., SUA, Canada, sau tari ale Uniunii Europene, incluzand institutii din Romania. Pe langa acestia, invitati speciali in sesiuni tip masa-rotunda/ dezbatere deschisa sunt cativa reprezentanti cheie ai mediului de politici economice, precum si ai invatamantului superior si cercetarii, din Romania. Conferinta este o premiera absoluta in Romania, atat din perspectiva stiintelor economice, cat si a oricaror discipline stiintifice (plus popularizare/ dezbatere stiintifica), in general. Cateva sute de persoane, cu predilectie din mediul academic, dar si din alte medii precum cel antreprenorial, guvernamental, ONG, mass-media, vor participa, in expectanta, in audienta conferintei (cateva zeci fiind deja inregistrate).

Pe langa partea principala a programului conferintei, constand in prezentarile de lucrari stiintifice contribuite sau invitate din sesiunile paralele, sau prezentarile "keynote" din sesiunile plenare, atragem explicit atentia asupra unor sesiuni speciale, de potential interes general:

- sesiune de dezbatere pe politici economice de mare interes pentru Romania: luni dupa-masa, 18 august

- sesiune de sfaturi pentru tinerii si mai putin tinerii economisti: marti seara, 19 august

- sesiune dezbatere despre starea, politica si managementul cercetarii stiintifice din Romania, cu focus pe cercetarea economica: miercuri seara, 20 august

- sesiune de scurte comunicari-rezumat de cercetare folosind date din/ direct relevante pentru Romania: joi dimineata, 21 august

- sesiune despre viitoarele editii ale conferintei ERMAS- si alte activitati relevante ale Econacademia: joi seara, 21 august

Informatii complete despre initiativa, inclusiv despre tintele si asteptarile de termen scurt si lung ale conferintei ERMAS (in expectanta, anuala), sunt disponibile pe http://www.conferinta.econacademia.net. Pentru orice noutati si actualizari: https://twitter.com/econacademia sau http://www.noutati.econacademia.net.  

Toate aceste informatii se pot evident disemina liber (eventual adaptat corespunzator), prin orice mediu de comunicare. 

Asteptam sa va intalnim la ERMAS 2014,

Coordonatorii ERMAS 2014: Sebastian Buhai (Stockholm University), Mihai Copaciu (Banca Nationala a Romaniei), Cosmin Ilut (Duke University) si Cristian Litan (Universitatea Babes-Bolyai)

PS. In momentul acesta-- deci la pranz, 6 iunie 2014-- mai sunt exact 5 locuri ramase pentru persoane potential interesate de a participa in cursul asociat ERMAS 2014, "Big Data Econometrics" (BDE), instructor Otilia Boldea, Tilburg University. Inscrierea se face in baza principiului "first come, first served", pana maxim la 30 iunie. Detalii complete despre curs, inclusiv modalitatea de inscriere (atentie: inscrierea la curs e SEPARATA de inregistrarea ca participant in audienta conferintei; in particular, toate persoanele inscrise la BDE, si interesate de conferinta, trebuie sa se inregistreze si in audienta conferintei, folosind formularul UBB-FSEGA mentionat mai sus; mutatis mutandis, persoanele inregistrate in audienta conferintei nu sunt automat inscrise si la curs, inscrierea la curs presupunand in prealabil primirea unui email confirmare de la instructorul cursului, conform instructiunilor)

Despre economia Romaniei (si nu numai). Fragmente dintr-un interviu nepublicat

Cat de “negru” considerati ca va fi 2012 din punct de vedere economico/financiar si cum ar putea fi afectata Romania?

Nu avem, din nefericire, motive sa jubilam. Pe fondul deteriorarii perspectivei economice in general, si datorita crizei din zona euro in particular, 2012 va fi incert si pentru Romania.  Dupa cum stim la ora asta, toate agentiile globale au revizuit in scadere previziunile privind evolutia economiilor europene, din eurozona si din afara ei, incluzand aici FMI, Banca Mondiala, BERD etc. Fara sa dau prea multe detalii asupra a ceea ce puteti gasi practic in toate aceste rapoarte, fac o scurta trecere in revista a catorva dintre aspectele economice care ar putea fi direct afectate in Romania (NB: discutii mai specifice despre unele aspecte sunt prezente si in alte parti din acest interviu):

-       exporturile; criza eurozonei ar putea afecta cei mai importanti parteneri comerciali ai Romaniei (peste 70% din comertul exterior—ca volum exporturi plus importuri—este cu statele UE, in particular Italia, Germania si Franta), reducand substantial perspectiva exporturilor romanesti, unde nu stateam pe roze nici pana acum (deficitul comercial in Octombrie 2011 era de 747 milioane de euro, de unde am “revenit” de la mai rau)

-       accesul la credite; exista posibilitatea ca bancile straine (care detin 80% din activele bancare din Romania) sa isi reduca critic expunerea pe pietele emergente din centrul si estul Europei pe fondul crizei din eurozona (o restrangere substantiala a creditarii s-a facut deja in trimestrul trei al 2011).

-       riscul financiar; tot prin relatiile financiar-bancare importante cu banci expuse crizei euro-zonei, varianta (“spread”-ul) CDS-urilor ar putea sa creasca si mai mult (in cazul Romaniei s-a marit deja cu peste dublul mediei caracteristice economiilor emergente), implicand incertitudine mult marita pe piata financiara

Catalizat de impactul asupra dimensiunilor economice de mai sus, se pot anticipa si consecinte negative indirecte, de exemplu nevoia de noi masuri de austeritate bugetara, avand in vedere ca avem deja  imprumuturi foarte mari (transa recenta de 5 bilioane de euro de la FMI adaugandu-se imprumutului de 27 bilioane garantat de FMI si UE in 2009) si nivelul deficitului bugetar maxim e fixat, conform acordurilor cu creditorii; inrautatirea indicatorilor pietei muncii (lipsa noilor locuri de munca, somaj in crestere, salarii inghetate, ajutoare sociale anulate s.a.m.d); reducerea bugetelor alocate educatiei si cercetarii, unde suntem mult sub tintele propuse si incredibil de mult sub cele optime s.a.m.d. Cert este ca va fi nevoie de eforturi mari pentru a sustine o crestere economica pozitiva in viitorul apropiat. Discut in finalul acestui interviu despre masuri implementabile in viitorul apropiat care ar putea ameliora aceasta perspectiva economica.

 [...]

Am vazut ca sunteti la curent cu ceea ce se intampla in Romania (am vazut pe blog ca ati postat un editorial a lui Tapalaga).  Care ar putea fi cateva masuri pentru evitarea unei recesiuni in Romania (asa cum multi se astepta pentru 2012)?

In lipsa spatiului, ma voi limita doar la doua categorii principale (plus cateva subcategorii) de masuri pe care le consider importante pentru viitorul apropiat.

-       Guvern de tehnocrati si implicare mult mai mare a electoratului (legislativului). In momentul in care ar fi nevoie de ei mai mult ca niciodata, echipa guvernamentala nu are un singur economist credibil. In plus, alegatorii nu sunt implicati deloc in decizii economice care ii afecteaza imediat. Sa facem o paralela intre doua democratii-- in teorie ambele functionale. In SUA, Presedintele isi ia foarte in serios rolul de se consulta (in practica, de a urma recomandarile)  pe orice tema economica cu echipa sa de consilierii economici (“Council of Economic Advisers”, i.e. CEA) si de convinge publicul/legislativul asupra necesitatii unor masuri recomandate de acestia; pozitia este perfect descrisa de citatul “spuneti-mi ce e corect, si ma voi gandi cum sa vand asta cel mai bine” (conversatie publicata intr-un memoriu CEA, intre Presedintele Obama si Christina Romer, fosta sefa a CEA). In Romania, politicile economice se decid in aparenta fara consultarea expertilor si se implementeaza fara implicarea alegatorilor (alternativ, a reprezentatilor acestora in Parlament), prin “asumarea raspunderii” Guvernului; pozitia Executivului (si a Presedintiei) aduce deci mai mult cu “nu va bateti capul, stim noi bine ce facem”[1].

-       Incetarea reducerii cheltuielilor bugetare si axarea pe reforme structurale pentru crestere durabila pe termen lung, in (cvasi)recesiuni. Multe din masurile de consolidare fiscala de pana acum, chiar si cele justificabile pe termen mediu si lung, au fost implementate prea brusc, la momentul inoportun. Reducerea cheltuielilor bugetare in perioade de recesiune curenta sau anticipata este controversata: nu exista o minoritate consistenta de economisti care sa le recomande fara rezerve. Desi nu avem un model teoretic cu previziuni precise, cele mai robuste rezultate empirice arata ca austeritatea in episoade de recesiune a fost urmata de episoade de prelungire, sau chiar agravare a recesiunii. In lipsa unor concluzii decisive in privinta cauzalitatii, avem suficiente motive sa anticipam efecte negative; ori cand vorbim de politici economice, bunastarea cetatenilor este obiectivul prioritar. Accentul trebuie pus pe reforme structurale de relansare economica, care sa induca o crestere economica durabila. Foarte succint, exemple de asemenea masuri necesare in Romania ar fi (pe langa masurile neimplementate de mai jos, unele au fost implementate doar superficial/partial si trebuie continuate/intensificate; in alte cazuri unele reforme s-au implementat exact pe dos, vezi de exemplu reducerea unor cheltuieli de finantare a cercetarii ca parte a pachetului de masuri de austeritate etc.):

o    Reforme ale pietei muncii. In contextul Romaniei, masurile pe partea cererii fortei de munca sunt in prezent prioritare, intre ele stimularea crearii de noi locuri de munca. Pe de alta parte masuri de stimulare a participarii in forta de munca ar trebui sa ramana in agenda tot timpul (superficial unele au fost implementate; de remarcat insa aici ca masuri gen reducerea ajutoarelor de somaj in perioade de recesiune, cand factual problema e lipsa locurilor de munca, dovedesc orice altceva decat competenta si responsabilitate sociala).

o    Reforme de privatizare. Privatizarea marilor companii de stat a fost de mult discutata, mult promisa, dar inca neefectuata; costurile intarzierilor sunt uriase. Privatizarea sistemului medical (NB facuta inteligent: copierea sistemului olandez sau elvetian “dupa ureche” nu e o solutie) este un alt exercitiu care trebuie finalizat etc.

o  Reforme de incurajare a antreprenoriatului. Masuri din aceasta categorie includ exemple gen stimularea prin deduceri de taxe in primii ani de activitate antreprenoriala, reducerea birocratiei necesare deschiderii unei afaceri proprii (in iunie 2011 eram pe locul 63 in lume din punct de vedere a cat de usor este sa devii antreprenor si pe locul 72 in clasificarea a cat de usor este sa functionezi ca antreprenor; cred ca se poate mai bine)

o    Reforme pentru R&D. Include cresterea investitiei in activitatile de cercetare si dezvoltare (R&D), si, implicit, in adaptarea si sustinerea invatamantului pentru a produce capitalul uman necesar acestor activitati.

o    Masuri de stimulare a investitiilor private din strainatate. Atragerea de capital privat este in prezent esentiala pentru Romania. Alternative existente pentru investitii (publice si/sau private) precum fondurile europene structurale si de coeziune (chiar la o rata de absorbtie de multe ori mai mare decat cea de pana acum) sau genul de parteneriate public-privat in derulare nu sunt suficiente sau neaparat sustenabile.

Puteti citi intreg documentul (10 intrebari + raspunsuri) in format PDF aici. 

---

[1] Citatul e imaginar, insa din categoria celor reale oferite de Executiv, si mai ales de Presedintie. Un exemplu elocvent din discursul recent  al domnului Basescu la investirea noului guvern: “Nu pot cere unui popor sa inteleaga prompt ce trebuie sa faca un guvern pentru ca tara sa nu se prabuseasca”.

Facts and fantasy about the financial crisis

I find it the most lucid summary (and criticism) of almost everything influential that has been published on the financial crisis so far. Some of the books are reviewed too briefly, and some newer ones are completely omitted, but nonetheless I think this is the most concise and useful general-purpose article written on the crisis as yet. Currently you can download Andrew Lo's "Reading about the financial crisis: A 21-Book Review" from his website (PDF version dated Jan 9, 2012). It is prepared for the JEL-- hence you should be able to find it also in one of the their next issues, perhaps in an updated version.

A special mention: the "Fact and Fantasy" section of the article covers the startling misinterpretations (some of them still awaiting to be corrected!), by several prominent academics, policy makers, and journalists, of the 2004 change in the SEC Rule 15c3-1 concerning leverage restrictions of certain financial institutions. It is beyond alarming how fast and easy some of these errors propagate even among what-ought-to-be-connaisseurs-- and how long and hard it takes for them to be discovered and debunked thereafter. The following edifying quote from Lo's article cannot be emphasized enough: 

[...] Only the most neurotic of academics would dig further to attempt to refute a "fact" that jibes with his or her intuition and preconceptions. This example should serve as a cautionary tale for all of us, and underscores the critical need to collect, check, and accumulate data from which more accurate inferences can then be drawn. Without the immutable hard platform of objective facts on which we can build an accurate narrative of the crisis that stands the test of time, there's little hope for scientific progress as the waves of public opinion toss our perspective in one direction or another. This is one of the most compelling reasons to read more than one account of the financial crisis, and to seek out those books that may not agree with our preconceptions, just in case we've been inadvertently misled through faulty "facts".

* update: the selected quote above is from the October 24, 2011 version of Lo's article; it is slightly different in the Jan 9, 2012 PDF version linked above. I have a preference for the older version, hence I leave that one here.

My Nobel Econ 2011 prediction

I say "Ernst Fehr, Matthew Rabin, and Richard Thaler for their contributions to behavioral economics" (I even bet 3$ on this, but for some yet unclear reason that pool has closed, with my money returned). In any case, I think it would be highly suspicious if I got it right also this time, given I got it perfectly last year and almost perfectly the year before that.

PS. By the way, as you must have noticed, although I've momentarily reduced the frequency of my blogposts, I've been posting brief impressions on my twitter. 

More matching in Chicago

My research whereabouts: after an inspiring matching workshop at Kellogg, Northwestern: "Matching: findings, flaws and future" (workshop schedule in PDF)  a month and a half ago, I will attend another a priori very interesting conference on matching at the Milton Friedman Institute, University of Chicago, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow: "Matching and price theory" (conference schedule in PDF). The overlap in the two programs appears to be only one paper-- and that paper is the one I liked most last time, hence Philipp can safely go on presenting it again :-).

My whereabouts

After a thought-provoking lecture yesterday by Daron Acemoglu on "Why Nations Fail" at Kellogg (if/when the previous link is replaced, you should be able to find the information on Acemoglu's lecture here)*, I am soon off to Vancouver, attending/presenting at the 2011 Society of Labor Economists (SOLE) meeting. Looking forward to the usually interesting SOLE conference, and to what I am being told should be a great city!

* I also attended Al Roth's excellent talk on "Market Design" a year ago, part of the same impressive Nancy Schwartz Memorial Lecture series; the more recent ones are all available in video format on the site; do not miss them!

Econlinks: The Dale T. Mortensen Nobel edition

• The most recent event under this heading is the Northwestern conference in the honor of Dale-- with some very good and some not so good presentations...-- featuring also some  very (and some not so) entertaining speeches by former Mortensen students, co-authors, advisers etc, either at the dinner at the Northwestern Allen Center on Friday evening, or at the drinks & snacks session at Beverly and Dale's splendid home (photo with Ija on their balcony) on Saturday evening. Read also this Northwestern Univ. article about the event.  If you ask me, Guido Menzio had both the most interesting presentation ("Social Insurance for Frictional Wage Inequality") and by far the best speech (let us call it "Guido, may the Force be with you!"); unfortunately, neither of them is available online, too bad if you were not there.
• Now rewind: I have first mentioned about Dale's Prize here, as some of us really were with Dale in Denmark when he got the magic phone call (this happened after I had correctly predicted Diamond, Mortensen and Pissarides winning the Prize in Economic Sciences, the day before). I'll try to organize the following links on chronological order since.
• Listen to the initial phone interview between the Nobel Foundation's Adam Smith and Dale (you might have heard about the funny Adam Smith phone call to Ned Phelps's home some years before; people are somewhat more prepared to Adam Smith calling them since...).
• Here's Dale's answering machine message about the Prize to Beverly Mortensen: have your sound on as well-- this is super funny.
• I have uploaded on Flickr one of my short videoclips from the John Abowd seminar in Aarhus, at the Aarhus School of Business (ASB), Dep of Econ building, which started with champagne for Dale (unfortunately the sound seems to have gotten lost on the way...). All spontaneusly organized my myself, Valerie and Frederic: I think we managed quite well. I even made sure these visiting guys were not missing the start of the party (even if Shimer thought I am trying to trick him to get him to the seminar--duh..., Rob!...-- when I called with the Dale-won-the-Nobel news)
• The first Aarhus Univ journalist & photographer arrived for Dale (hallway of the ASB's Frichshuset) and here's a very first Dale video interview, just outside the Frichshuset, in which Dale tells the Danish reporter that yes, the Danes can also feel proud because of his winning the Prize.
• After a first full day of interviews and photo sessions for Dale, the first dinner party takes place at one of my very favorite restaurant in Aarhus, Klassisk 65. Thanks to Valerie for helping me with the organization (we had planned the dinner at Klassisk for that day in any event; with Dale winning the Prize in that day, we had to try hard to include more people on the reservation list, and plan in  much more detail). Watch the official TV2 documentary (very slow, be patient) from the place, including the by now famous Dale-sabring-the-champagne-bottle moment(s). I uploaded one of my own videoclips from Klassisk as well (again no sound). 
• A nice video capturing Dale's returning to Chicago from Denmark, with family and the NU brass band welcoming him at O'Hare. 
• One advantage of being  affiliated both with Aarhus and Northwestern is that I got to participate in all the Dale Mortensen-parties! Obviously Northwestern had to rise up to the occasion, and I think they managed well: there were several events, including two parties--one Department of Economics-wide, one NU-wide -- organized in relation to Dale's winning the Prize. Here's the best moment from the first NU party, where, having heard of Dale's champagne-sabring demonstration in Denmark, he was asked to confirm his skills also in Evanston-- and I had the honor to assist (clip borrowed from Jeff Ely on Cheaptalk). Here's a fantastic picture, the ultimate proof of Dale's champagne-sabring mastery! 
• An article with a link to a clip containing the best moments from the NU-wide reception for Dale; Janice Eberly and Bob Coen in particular prepared wonderful speeches. Some other NU press articles with video- and photo- links: Dale winning the Nobel and first reactions from NU Econ faculty colleagues, summary of and photos from the celebrations in Stockholm; see also some other Dale Mortensen photos from Stockholm and not only, collected on the Nobel Foundation site.
• There are also by-products of winning a Nobel prize, such as: getting a whisky bottle and-- if, justifiably, you thought that was no big deal-- a whole building named after him, at Aarhus University (with the participation at the opening, of the other Nobel Laureate at Aarhus, Jens Skou, and of the DK crown prince) ; a permanent parking spot and some other very visible (temporary) honors, at Northwestern University; hanging around with Mr. President-- good, better (my own photo capture of the framed pictures adorning the walls in the Mortensens' apartment). 
• You can also check out some more related pictures and videos that I collected (some belong to Aarhus University, some to Northwestern University, some to the Nobel Foundation, some are mine --including from the Econ Prize lectures, which I watched live, online, on my laptop, from Chicago-- I tried to specify everywhere whom they belong to  in order to observe copyright issues-- comment on this post or contact me if you observe anything wrong or unclear in that sense) and uploaded on my Flickr acount.
• Finally: the best way to learn (more) about last year's Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel is to browse through the corresponding pages on the Nobel Foundation's website. There is a great wealth of material in there (and more will be uploaded in the future, including, e.g., autobiographies of the Laureates), such as informative articles-- both brief and longer--, interviews, documentaries, photos etc. For instance, you can read what the 2010 Prize in Economic Sciences is about in a popular version for the larger audience (related, a "speed read" version; even an "illustrated" version); you can also go on and inspect the more detailed, technical, version with further references (or go through the concise three-page version by Rob Shimer); see also an interview with Per Krussell describing the work of the 2010 Econ Nobel Laureates; watch a documentary about the lives and work of the three Laureates; a video interview of the three Econ Prize winners with Adam Smith (including opinions about teaching and training their graduate students, I thought that was very informative!); watch the Econ Prize lectures of Mortensen, Diamond, Pissarides; the Banquet Speech of Dale (on behalf of the three Economics Prize winners) etc.

US Government shutdown menorah

...and some of us were worried about Portugal...

At midnight, if the President and Congress have not reached an agreement on funding measures, the U.S. government will shutdown, referred to as a funding gap, until an agreement is reached to either extend a temporary funding measure or a final budget deal is made.

[...] The last time a funding gap took place was in 1995-1996 when the government experienced a 21 day shutdown.

Oh well, some, like Stephen Colbert, can see the positive side of all this: extinguishing one more candle on their government shutdown menorah (and... wishing for a pony).

Econlinks: The applied maths edition

• Serious fight on evolutionary theory ground. The bulk of evolutionary theorists seem to be set on taking Nowak et al to the guillotine, but there is also a small minority of fans: among them, my former Tinbergen Institute colleague Matthijs van Veelen (see a picture of him from when he was older, wiser, sporting a big white beard; NB: yours truly is the junior black-and-yellow fellow at his left, learning on the job) and his co-authors have a nice correspondence in Nature supporting Novak et al. PS. Note also that one co-author of the controversial paper is Romanian mathematician Corina Tarnita (whom, allegedly, many girls would/should like to have as role model)
• The wave equation and tsunami propagation: a concise exposition by Terry Tao. Brings back nice memories of my maths classes at Utrecht University.
• Life arithmetic with (unavoidable?) implications: "Life is short. Have an affair".
• New chess strategies (more)? Now to the good guys: the latest (and seemingly, last) Amber chess tournament was clearly won by Aronian-- followed in the combined rankings by Carlsen and Anand: these three are in my view also the only consistent, long-run runners in the chess marathon. And related: Carlsen's bold decision to challenge a by-now-obsolete chess world championship format.  
• Greg Mankiw with the correct (and scary) budget arithmetic. 
• This is piece of cake, walk in the park: should have focused on predicting Burgundy 2011 vintage quality :-). But agreed, it was better than mine.
• A trip through a Mandelbox. Via Alex Tabarrok at MR.
• The science of stout foam. Or: the time of cheaper Guinness is nye! I confessed already that I had chosen a great Condrieu (relative to the other wines I had at Alinea, this was the one unforgettable) on St. Patrick's, but obviously I still fancy the good old Irish stout! 
• On continuous harmonic spaces (the original paper). Shows that consonance and dissonance  in music are to a considerable extent routed in nature and can be described/defined mathematically, beyond cultural or time relativism. We like it!

Best LEED for developing countries

Word goes that Portugal is likely to soon join the category of developing countries (as you might have heard). However, before you start sobbing, consider this: not all is doom. In fact, this could well be heaven for economists working with the famous Quadros de Pessoal longitudinal "linked employer-employee data" (LEED), and, eventually-- as I will try to convince you-- it would materialize in tremendous success in improving the state of the whole world. Bear with me.

Firstly, these researchers working with Portuguese LEED would then be able to sell their papers also as research in development economics (I am already working on convincing my co-author Miguel to place "economic development" as keyword in our couple of projects using that data). And you tell me if any other developing country can come up with data that beats Quadros de Pessoal! More importantly, just imagine not having to worry any longer about sample sizes, representative samples, non-response, measurement errors-- issues that typically plague development economics research; imagine how much more could be uncovered about the economies of developing countries, imagine the giant leap in the research progress on development, imagine finding solutions to all developing world problems, imagine all the virtuous circle! Isn't Portugal's sacrifice then just a very kind gesture to humankind?

-Inspired by Tiago, the most enterprising  Econ PhD student at Northwestern-

What I have been reading

A couple of books I have read within the past few weeks, most of them on my Kindle 3G device(*):

Scott Berkun's "Confessions of a Public Speaker" (get the Kindle edition): the author is a professional speaker, in front of audiences large and small, hence he has got some very helpful tips for anyone who ever needs to engage in public speaking, mostly drawn from his own experiences. These tips range from the a priori preparation for your speech, to engaging your audience, to knowing what to do when you have a too large room and too few people in there etc.What is missing, but understandably so given the author's career, is the treatment of academic public lectures, which can be quite different than any other public types of speech-- nevertheless a series of Berkun's recommendations work perfectly also for academics. The book is at the same time a very fun reading.

***

Jason Zweig's "The Little Book of Safe Money: How to Conquer Killer Markets, Con Artists, and Yourself" (get the Kindle edition): useful advice for small investors (that can be probably summed up by the following quotes "for most small investors, an indexed bond mutual fond is the best way to go" and "[d]on't invest in leveraged and inverse ETFs. Leave them to professional traders" ...) and adapted particularly for the US audience (you do find for instance very helpful info on the so-called '529 plans,' including some online links to compare various such plans, in case you are interested in that). Definitely not for more sophisticated investors (some of you, readers of this blog) or for people who've read much more detailed stuff on financial investments earlier (although I am myself in this category, sometimes it is useful to consult other perspectives at a more elementary level). A tad too cautious and limited on scope and purpose. Anyhow, if you are a beginner and (plan to) live in the US, by all means do read this book.

***

Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner's "Superfreakonomics" (get the Kindle edition). I find this better written than their first Freakonomics success (see, e.g., the first bullet point here for some of the huge debate on that earlier book)-- probably experience and learning on the job-- though it contains as little economics as the first one (it is written more in an investigative journalism style: Dubner obviously has the feeling for what sells and what not). That being said, I still think it is eventually a great service even to the economics  academic community (at least in drawing attention to the range of situations/phenomena that economics can be applied to; NB: I personally doubt it would give the/a too wrong impression of what economists do and should do-- if anything, it might convey the idea that some economists know very well how to sell their books,), and probably that writing it in more 'econo-prose' would have reduced its popularity. I would particularly recommend it to any non-economists, for sure (e.g. last winter I noticed the Romanian translation of the book is already out, and made it present to a good old Transylvanian friend of mine-- in function of his reaction I might offer it to my parents as well). By the way, related, the Freakonomics documentary is currently available for instant viewing on Netflix (I correct myself: right now their site is down, but it is the first time I do not see it functioning), if you are in US and have access to that service-- I plan to watch it one of the next days.

***

And now to my two favorites in this set: 

John Adams's "Hallelujah Junction. Composing an American Life" (unfortunately not available on Kindle): this is one of the best autobiographies I have ever read, within the musical realm and beyond. Honest, full of wit, style, and extremely informative-- and that to say the least. As somebody who's listened to a large set of Adams's compositions (and working on the remaining ones...) and who regularly follows his blog, I simply had to read his autobiographical piece in order to have access to Adams's detailed perspective on both his  own work and his general ideas of music (composition, interpretation, intrigues, all the hoopla), politics, life, everything... Highly recommended: one of those books that you simply cannot stop reading once you have started. I'll most likely refer to passages or ideas from "Hallelujah Junction" in many of my future blogposts.

Steven Landsburg's "The Big Questions" (get it on Kindle): I will only tell you that this book is from my perspective really scary, in that its author appears to think about  crucial stuff --i.e. mathematics, economics, physics, philosophy, tax policies, trade, sex, religion, life, Universe etc.-- in an almost identical way to yours truly (ok: I should maybe phrase it as "I think almost exactly like him"-- after all he was there before me...). In any case, even if you've known all the time and agreed all the way with everything in the book (though he does cover an enormous range of topics, requiring that you'd be an extremely well read person), Landsburg's exposition is one of the clearest I've ever encountered (this is true also for his previous books, some of them recommended earlier on this blog; I will only say here that I even used an earlier quote from him as one of the "propositions" --"stellingen", in Dutch-- to go along with my PhD thesis defence-- see under IX in this list). In particular, he's got the rare ability to explain in few paragraphs, mainly by means of easy examples and analogies, some highly complex material (try explaining quantum physics or deontological vs. consequential ethics to the non-initiated!), albeit he needs to strip them down to the bare essence (but then again this is a popularizing book, aimed for a wide audience). Landsburg's writing style is also something I personally like a lot: he's got just the right amounts of humor, irony, and even the tiny bit of arrogance (why not?) mixed in his book. Check out also Landsburg's "The Big Questions" blog, something I've followed and enjoyed since its very start. I end with a larger quote from the introductory chapter of "The Big Questions" that is likely to give you a good feeling of Landsburg's 'creed' and goal in this book (as well as the similarity with my own academic training and beliefs, c.f. the scary/eerie part from above):

"[...] I went on to a career of research in teaching in both mathematics and economics, with a little dabbling in physics along the way, but I never lost sight of my fascination with the big questions of philosophy: Where did the Universe come from? Why is there something instead of nothing? How is knowledge possible? What justifies a belief? How can we tell right from wrong, and good from evil? How should we live our lives?

Philosophers have useful ways of thinking about these questions, but so do people  who are not philosophers. Physicists know something about the origins of the Universe; mathematicians know something about the patterns of reality; economists know something about how our choices affect the lives of others, which is not distinct from the problem of distinguishing right from wrong. I've come to believe that these disciplines provide some of the best available tools for chipping away at the problems of philosophy.

When a man  with a hammer tells you that everything looks like a nail, you should doubt his objectivity. When a man who knows some math and economics tells you that the problems of philosophy can be solved with math and economics, you're entitled to exactly the same reaction. But in this case I believe the causality runs the other way: I was drawn to math and economics because they illuminate the big questions. I saw the nails and went out to find a hammer. [...]"

(*)which is absolutely fantastic and you must have it, despite 1. the fact that David Letterman cannot find page numbers on the Kindle books -- and hates it because of that; 2. the fact that each Kindle book costs more if you buy it outside US-- function of the IP address from where you log in to your Amazon account when buying it (before investigating and realizing this, I did actually buy quite a few Kindle books during my European winter holidays-- and ended up paying about 50 bucks more than I would have paid, had I bought them here in the US). In any case, I am the owner of more than 100 Kindle books already (yes, Amazon, I expect some loyalty awards!): given my fairly long commuting time between Lakeview, where I live, and Northwestern Univ in Evanston, I can read up to two or three books in good weeks.

Econlinks: The Freudian interlude

• Seinfeld's spongeworthy Elaine, an unusual, limited-purpose --but very thorough-- option theory application, by the one and only Avinash Dixit.
•  All passé now, but hopefully you did pick your favorite Cupid. 
• New academic econ world order... but only if you fail to control for the quality of the journals  those papers are published in (my conjecture is that if you take only the top 5-10 journals, the US-EU average gap actually widened). Unfortunately, most European academic economists still believe that publishing  frequently into journals (almost) nobody can remember the names of, or reads, actually makes any difference (other than locally). Pretty Freudian, if you ask me.
•  Compensating wage differentials for sexual harassment? Via: Tabarrok's politically incorrect MR example. 
•  Ely has a good analysis of an (the?) ubiquitous situation arising in the econ (not necessarily  junior) job market. Hamermesh's post on Freakonomics is more related to that than you'd first think. 
• Finding the G-spot; next will be tasting it. 
• Massive reorganization of science funding in Europe... Something promised every four years or so; at least in that practice they are consistent. I don't really know why they aim to change these things ever so often, seemingly just to leave their mark, instead of making sure something actually works well, for once . Very European, and very Freudian...
•  Looks a bit shaky research-wise, but let's take it at face value for now: heterogenous effects of the scent of a woman (I guess Colonel Frank Slade had a simpler, yet practical, view of life). In all cases, a related (albeit equally shaky...) study reaches what looks to me like the right conclusions, which even Slade aka Pacino could adhere to: "Our investigation, however, demonstrates that implicitly preventing people from attending to desirable relationship alternatives may undermine, rather than bolster, the strength of that person’s romantic relationship" HT: Freakonomics.
  
  
  

One hundred years of AER

 "This paper presents a list of the top 20 articles published in the American Economic Review during its first 100 years. This list was assembled in honor of the AER's one-hundredth anniversary by a group of distinguished economists at the request of AER's editor. A brief description accompanies the citations of each article."

 ***

"Written in celebration of the 100th anniversary of the American Economic Review, this paper recounts the history of the journal. The recounting has an analytic core that sees the American Economic Association as an organization supplying goods and services to its members, one of which is the Review. Early in its history the Review was a multipurpose publication with highly disparate content. Over time the economics profession expanded and more economics research was produced, primarily in the form of journal articles. Editors accommodated this shift by allocating more resources to the refereeing and editing process and more space to research papers."

Grand challenges for social, behavioural and economic sciences

What this is about: SBE 2020.

244 white papers in SBE available on the NSF site.

The white papers in Economics. Note that some of these papers are not available on the NSF site as they were submitted after their deadline, hence this is not really a subset of the earlier 244; moreover, more might be added at this link (I would not be surprised to count ultimately more here than the total number of papers on the NSF site, after all Econ work is never over-- last bullet point).

(hat tip to Al Roth)

Econlinks: In degrees of awesomeness

• Greg Mankiw seems to be arguing for a European-type separate master + PhD graduate Econ program-- such as those at LSE, Oxford, Pompeu Fabra, Tinbergen Institute, and (I guess) the newish Paris School of Economics entity-- rather than the US-type graduate PhD package, which comes with a (usually elective) master on the way (that is somewhat ironic, given the desire of the typical high-aspiring European place to ultimately emulate the US top places). In any case, assessing the total costs and benefits of these two alternatives remains a difficult empirical quest.
• Awesome grants, via Michael Nielsen.
• MR has linked to direct evidence that the History academic job market was hit way harder (e.g., this year lowest number of positions in a quarter century) than the Economics academic job market (and most likely than any other discipline's job market), which is almost back to the pre-recession level. (My wise friend Daniel, the historian of science with whom I talked several times about this, was absolutely right in his intuitive assessment) 
• Awesome (albeit late) discovery. After reading Gelman's WSJ story, I am decided to request a priori a "kill fee provision", whenever I am asked again to write stuff for various non-scientific outlets; I had similar experiences with a couple of Romanian (some, not surprisingly, now defunct...) newspapers, and, in particular, with the (very surprisingly, still surviving...) Aarhus School of Business internal press. Except that I ended up wasting time and not getting any 'kill fee' for it. Sometimes you have to learn from your own mistakes.
• Creative love song for Friedrich Hayek. Great, as so far Keynes seemed to get all the love (plus the hangovers, true): last bullet point. 
• Very well presented classic economic arguments for raising public college tuition fees by Gary Becker and Richard Posner. Digest them carefully, as they might appear counter-intuitive (witness the frequent nonsensical arguments against such tuition raises) even to intellectuals -- those without training in and/or understanding of Economics. 
• Awesome reply to comment in the scientific journal world. 
• As controversial as outputs of such activity might currently be, concretely gathering brains in such 'intellectual ventures'--in fact: literally leading to brainstorming-- is just awesome. The idea in itself is of course not new, Myhrvold just had the will-- and financial means!-- to implement it on such a scale

George Stigler could do anything--anything but be boring

 [...] I must out of courtesy and caution reserve judgment on any laws that Professor Stigler may unveil. For, as I learned when our friendship began long ago, George Stigler can do anything-- anything but be boring.

-Paul Samuelson-

Here's the Sunday read I recommend to you: a great 1963 dialogue on the "proper economic role of the state" between two intellectual giants, George Stigler(*, **) and Paul Samuelson. More actual than ever. If only all current policy and academic debates had this flavor!

* inspired by Steven Landsburg's recent blogposts on Stigler, here and here. Echoing Landsburg, you must absolutely read Stigler's "The Intellectual and the Marketplace" and "Memoirs of an Unregulated Economist", if you haven't already done so. Indeed, he would likely be the champion of all Econ bloggers.

** read fast Milton Friedman's short biographical essay on Stigler and Stigler's 1982 Nobel prize lecture "The process and progress of economics"

Econlinks: On crises. And opportunities

• Crises and opportunities in Balkan science policy (start, more). A word of caution for my Romanian pals, among whom a new risk of self-denying optimism-- expected to turn into the usual complacency-- appears contagious: con calma, this is at best a mediocre start (though, granted, a start it is). Not to mention that before reaching (competing with?) the West, the East needs to tackle (be inspired by?) the more (and increasingly so) academically attractive South.
• ...in which it is revealed that crises may hide huge opportunities. Earlier on the Kseniya phenomenon.
• A wealth of economic ideas? Taxing prostitution in the Netherlands and witchcraft in Romania.  Good luck.
• Chess crisis: what did they give Magnus to drink/smoke in Holland?! In words.
• Opportunities? Best predictors of the number of heterosexual sex partners.
• Somebody save Maastricht, tourists will desert it. 
• In praise of reading and fiction: Mario Vargas Llosa like no other. Also, hopes that the Literature Nobel Committee has finally decided to do a Nobel Committee job.

Econlinks: The 'Economics and Reality' edition

• Harald Uhlig has an interesting recent paper entitled "Economics and Reality"  (intentionally recalling Sims's 1980 ECMA, indeed) . While he discusses the relationship between Economics and Reality (yep, isn't that what you all hope to hear?) mainly in terms of Macroeconomics (you know, the black sheep of the family), I thought he does that in an informative and at the same time very concise way. Hence, highly recommended; I'll quote his end (optimistic, for once...) summary, to get you in the mood: "Reality, i.e. empirical evidence influences economic thinking and theory and vice versa -- but it does not do so in textbook fashion. Jolted by new empirical and theoretical insights and subjected to the fickleness of attention, the frontier of our sciences lurches forward to the unknown territory of ever more profound understanding. If it moves in circles, it hopefully does so on even higher levels. Practical economics and economic policy follows, with considerable distance. Perhaps, this is how it has to be."

• Colbert vs. Mankiw Part 1. Mankiw vs. Colbert Part 2. And here's how it all got started. Obviously we want serious blood, this is just teasing each other. We want more, we want war: we want the Colbert-Mankiw interview! It ain't gonna be easy, after all recall that his Harvard Econ colleague Freeman was a disaster on the Colbert Report (here is an updated link that seems to work)-- albeit his other Harvard colleague Fryer did eventually pretty well (3rd bullet point). But Mankiw is no nonsense, so this could be tough :-). Bets are open!
  

• Hopeless and hapless Romania: well, you do get what you wish for..., where "disappointing" is a euphemism. 
• A must read (also for philosophers and 'other social scientists'): Avinash Dixit's " My Philosophy of Economics, Life, and Everything (Not!)", the sequel to his by now (in)famous "My System of Work (Not!)" . As smart and humorous as always.
• And finally. Off with you, Mr. Pitt: here cometh the Age of the Wimp!

Beyond Pico della Mirandola

How do you get talented, self-absorbed, often arrogant, incredibly bright people to work together?

Warren Bennis, "The Secrets of Great Groups", Leader to Leader, 1997

Labour markets, between heaven and hell

[...]heaven is where women and older people work like Swedes, the young work like the Dutch and the unemployed find jobs like the Danes. Hell is where workers get into unemployment like the Americans and out of it like the Italians.

"A special report on the world economy", The Economist