Showing posts with label Becker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Becker. Show all posts

Friday, October 30, 2009

Weekend Econlinks

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Econlinks today

  • Here's the most ridiculous thing I've heard so far, within the academic publishing business: deliberately slowing things down by sitting a whole month on each submission before doing anything with it. Via Andrew Gelman. Something like this might well be practiced by more journals and in many fields ( and surely I am thinking mostly about my own field here...) than currently known: could explain a substantial part of (complementing the fact that referees are not easy to find and they might be slow themselves, see also here) the often exaggerated times before one gets back referee reports etc. I think it just shows the incapacity of those editors to function as editors, if that is the case. And obviously excessive crowding/queueing can be solved in this context, similar to many other contexts involving congestion, by raising submission fees (despite the apparent objection of some people, which Gelman also mentions, that people don't have the money for it-- give me a break, I'd say: if you are indeed such an underpaid academic, probably you can't produce the quality required for that top journal anyway; and for universities in places that really run low on budgets and remuneration in general, like Africa, Eastern Europe etc., some reduction or waiver could be in place).

  • "Econometrics: qu'est-ce que c'est?" or econometrics as taught at University of Michigan (where also other Econ professors seem to be very talented inasmuch as music is concerned) :-). I think many economics/ econometrics professors elsewhere could learn something from this-- it isn't for nothing that most students consider econometrics courses the most boring courses they (have to) take... Here's the academic website of the excellent performer above, in case anyone wants to contact him for advice in teaching.

  • Discussion on the merits of (further/ re-) regulating financial markets: Becker and respectively, Posner. I believe Posner is for some reason becoming too skeptical of the powers of the free market, so I'll strongly recommend only Becker's analysis this time :-).

  • Collected advice for young economists (via Tyler Cowen on MR), from senior economists. I have read all of these pieces before (though, unfortunately, haven't always followed the advice in there...), but it is excellent to have them in one place.

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Econlinks for 06-02-'08

  • 'Economics according to Google': a very interesting interview with Hal Varian, the currrent Chief Economist at Google. The interview was taken just a few days after Varian took over his new (full-time) job. Retain Varian's prediction: "I think marketing is the new finance".

Monday, January 28, 2008

Econlinks for 28-01-'08

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Econlinks for 24-01-'08

  • Interesting thoughts on how to deal with plagiarism in the academe. Nevertheless, I think the power of the market is downplayed too much in this argument; the market has in fact been remarkably good at solving such issues. I don't think that we deal with serious market inefficiencies in this context and hence, that external interventions are necessary.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Econlinks for 27-12-'07

  • "Morality matters for economic performance": A very interesting summary of recent research plus the agenda for further research in the context, by Guido Tabellini, on voxeu.org. Tabellini already presented (part of) this in the 2007 EEA-ESEM conference from Budapest (more precisely, as the EEA Presidential Address, from the 30th of August), for those of you who have also been attending.

  • Markets in everything, one more exotic episode from Tyler Cowen's book, "Discover your inner economist" (read here the previous one). Today about the 'business of renting wedding guests':

A report from India tells of a firm that rents out wedding guests, so that the wedding and the party do not look empty. The "guests" will wear either traditional Indian dress or Western clothes, depending on what the customer dictates. They are told to dance and make small talk, and show a knowledge of the marrying couple,without letting on that they are hired. The firm's owner, a Mr. Syed, told one newspaper: "The breaking up of joint families and lack of affection among relatives also creates a demand for paid guests". The Best Guests Centre, at Jodhpur in Rajasthan, is looking to expand. To each his own: I would pay some people to stay away from my wedding.

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Econlinks for 27-11-'07

  • Becker and respectively Posner, on tax evasion. Why is tax compliance higher than one would expect (with a reservation here: it also follows from Posner's argument than in fact tax evasion isn't necessarily lower than rationally expected...) and is that mainly due to the rational fear of punishment or to the taxpayers' feeling of moral duty/ fairness etc? For me Posner wins this argument (they do oppose each other on the essence herein, which after all rarely happens on the Becker-Posner blog...): it is much more the deterrence effect of the fear of punishment plus the costs associated with getting to know how to evade the taxes 'properly', than a feeling of moral duty or fairness, particularly when no other individual is directly involved; after all Posner's got the comparative advantage in this area and it is very very difficult to beat that...

  • From now on (until I'll exhaust all notable examples), I'll present within the 'econlinks' posts my favourite examples of 'markets in everything' from Tyler Cowen's recent book, "Discover Your Inner Economist"-- one of my best reads this year (that does not mean that its chapters cannot be ranked: there are very good and also not so good, parts). Check for instance some quotes from it previously taken over for my quote-of-the-week rubrique, here or here. For today about the drinking-and-dialing-problem and equally exotic market solutions to prevent it (and from a more personal perspective, I think there is scope for a drinking-and-emailing-problem resolution as well :-)).

We have all known people who make phone calls when they shouldn't, especially when they are drunk. A survey of 409 people by Virgin Mobile found that 95 percent had made drunk calls, mostly to ex-partners (30 percent), 19 percent to current partners, and 36 percent to others, including their bosses. Fifty-five percent of those people looked at their phones the next morning to see whom they had called-- similarly, someone is waking up in the world this minute and checking to see who it is he or she is sleeping with.
To alleviate the drinking-and-dialing problem, a phone company in Australia started offering customers blocked "blacklist" numbers, which they select before going out to drink. In Japan they sell a mobile phone with a breathanalyzer, to see if you are really fit to drive home, or for that matter to make a phone call. If a bus driver fails the test, his location is sent immediately to his boss by GPS.

  • And finally, I will be a millionaire (albeit in DK Kroner, but after all one has to start somewhere) for the next two years. I have been awarded (mange tak!) a prestigious (and generous, academe-wise) independent postdoctoral research grant of The Danish Social Science Research Council (Forskningsrådet for Samfund og Erhverv) for my project "Wages, Productivity and Firm Sizes in Imperfectly Competitive Markets", submitted for the grant applications' contest last August. So yes, you can congratulate me :-). And no, they won't let me buy Belgian beers for all that money. Though I guess that some top wine for research inspiration is allowed :-). Cheers!

Thursday, November 01, 2007

Econlinks for 01-11-'07

  • The RePEc blog appeared recently. Looks interesting at first sight, though some ideas in very recent posts do not appear so sensible (such as this one).

  • Spinning ballerina: the KO (via Freakonomics). Blogged about that also here and here.

  • "After nearly 15 minutes of soul searching" he "heard the call" and decided to enter the Presidential election for the USA: "Nation, I will seek the office of the president of the United States. I am doing it!". So, Americans, vote for Steve Colbert!

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Econlinks for 19-09-07

  • Good reads from Becker and Posner on the disappearance of the formal kibbutz and the rejection of socialism in general. A relevant excerpt from Becker's:

"Utopian socialistic experiments like the kibbutz movement, and countries that tried to create large-scale efficient socialism, all failed for the same reasons. They did not realize that while the zeal of pioneers, and the result of revolutions, could sustain a collectivist and other-serving mentality for a short while, these could not be maintained as the pioneers died off or became disillusioned, and as circumstances became less revolutionary. Basically, they ignored the evidence of history that self interest and family orientation is not the product of capitalism, but is human nature due to selection from evolutionary pressure over billions of years. Sure, there is abundant altruism toward one's family, and some altruism toward others, and the latter might sustain a society for a brief time. But it shows a depressing ignorance of history to believe that a little propaganda and the enthusiasm of some leaders can organize an effective long-term society on the basis of any altruism and desires of most persons to help institutions, such as a kibbutz or a country, rather than themselves and those close to them."

  • Dimitrie Cantemir's notes as inspiration source for a Swiss musician who set up to rediscover the Turkish music's roots. The Economist article describes Cantemir as "a Moldavian Christian, Prince Dimitrie Cantemir". I always had the impression that Cantemir might be more useful-- think "branding"-- on the long run, than scores of other Romanian (or what were then parts of Romania) kings, princes, leaders in general-- it has to do with wisdom over lesser qualities :-). We're almost there...

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

How intelligent should leaders be?

Although I think there is more to the story, quite insightful thoughts from Richard Posner and Gary Becker on the relationship between intelligence and leadership. A few potential caveats I'd point out very rapidly:
  • the examples considered are clearly selected to fit the theory advanced (though it is far from clear that if one considered, say, all -succesful and unsuccesful - political leaders within the last century, from all over the world, not just the USA, the correlation between intelligence and leadership would turn positive)
  • "leadership failure" is far from easy to define. What if we are talking about more dimensions to leadership and the leader in question has been highly succesful in some but has made a total fiasco out of others? Would it be sufficient to simply consider whether her last 'leadership spell' coincided with an upturn/downturn in public support? Hence, that last very moment- glory or disgrace- would be the (one and only) proxy?
  • I tend to agree that one might not want to have leaders from either the top or bottom percentiles of the (true) IQ distribution, but I also think that the vast majority of these people are very unlikely to ever consider accepting such jobs (for different reasons when comparing the top with the bottom of the IQ distribution, of course). And the example of Einstein refusing the presidency of Israel springs immediately to my mind. Hence, we are probably talking about a truncated "intelligence" distribution from where leaders are sampled, to start with.
  • Linked to the previous point, I am rather dubious about placing "cognitive" and "non-cognitive" skills on adverse (or even mutually exclusive) positions for this particular context. If the leader's sampling IQ distribution is indeed truncated (particularly at the top end), I'd conjecture that cognitive and non-cognitive skills can still mix fine in the leader's "intelligence" portfolio without crowding each other out :-).

Below two representative fragments from each of the posts:


Economists have been emphasizing in recent years that that while cognitive abilities of individuals certainly raise their education and earnings, many non-cognitive skills are often more significant. These skills include simple factors like finishing one's work on time, to more complicated ones like good judgments in making decision, or effectiveness at using talents of subordinates. Posner argues convincingly that non-cognitive talents may be of greater importance in determining success at top-level government leadership positions than analytical brilliance and other cognitive skills. (Becker)



What is required at the top levels of government is not brilliance, but managerial skill, which is a different thing, and includes knowing when to defer to the superior knowledge of a more experienced but less mentally agile subordinate. Moreover, so specialized is management as a job that success in managing a business may not translate at all into success in managing a government agency. The firm-specific human capital that a person acquired in a career of management in a business firm may have no value for the management of a government agency, or for that matter a university, a private foundation, or an international organization. Indeed, an experienced manager of a firm may falter and have to be fired if a change in the firm's environment requires a different type of management skill.
(Posner)


Update, 22nd of June '07: It is quite ironic that some people hold the opposite view, ie. "a brainiac for president" (via Greg Mankiw). So just wait now, looking at the approaching USA presidential elections, if Becker and Posner have it right, both Romney and Obama should be out of the election race. And, au contraire, they should be the candidates in the decisive Republican-Democrat face-off if Mankiw's got it right :-). What if I am right? Then all presidential candidates are sampled from a truncated intelligence distribution :-).

Sunday, May 13, 2007

Econlinks for 13-05-'07

  • a clear KO administered by Steven Levitt to some 'journalist' who tried to criticise him and made a mess of himself, rather... That was nice (don't upset Levitt if you're not a pro and particularly don't do it if you have no clue what you're talking about...), but I think Levitt is wasting his time with answering such nonsense in such detail, and he'd rather give some reactions to the interesting part of the criticisms raised, for instance, by Rubinstein (Rust and Heckman are other heavyweights that criticised Levitt in the past). I summarized a bit of all that on this blog, a while ago.

  • one very interesting piece of Paul Rubin in the Washington Post, on the link between evolution and (some) people's wrong opinions on immigration and trade. I cannot agree more with one of his conclusions: "A deeper understanding of economics is like reading- it must be taught". Via Greg Mankiw (though I can't really see this as 'Darwin versus Smith'...).

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Academic tenure: to be or not to be?

Excellent post of Steven Levitt on whether giving tenure in the academic environment (in Economics, in particular) makes any sense. Of course- and Levitt should know that, but maybe he doesn't, since he does not say anything about it- both Richard Posner and Gary Becker extensively talked about this (and about tenure in general, though they did focus on the academic and judicial settings) on their common blog, more than a year ago (they also came back on the topic with answers to comments received on the initial posts, see Posner's reply to comments and Becker's reply to comments, respectively). All arguments are in there and I can really not think of anything substantive to add to what Posner, Becker and Levitt already stated so clearly. They all seem to agree (mind you, these are all Chicago people) that all universities should get rid of tenure (and they are all willing to give up on their own tenures, although, mind you, these people mentioned above would be most likely hired anytime anywhere anyway, on the basis of their academic status quo achieved already and, I'd say, particularly given they hold such opinions; my absolute respect and admiration for each of them!), that this is not necessary any longer in today's academic setting. Perfect. And I think Levitt's idea of particular universities moving alone with the decision of offering only non-tenured jobs would be worthwhile and could potentially start a "race to the top" in terms of standards (I am talking about the USA and similar systems where they still offer tenure- most academic systems in the world, basically): in my opinion, it is enough that two or three universities in the world top 5 do just that (I think the critical mass is more than 1, so a coordination of two top ones is necessary...). It is interesting though to see what was the problem with the universities that tried the system but reverted to the old one, so something must have gone wrong (Levitt mentions that in the end of his post and, if I recall correctly, Becker mentions Boston Univ. in the comments to his post on tenure)

I will just copy-paste below some short relevant excerpts from the posts linked above:
I do not think tenure makes a great deal of sense any longer in the academic setting, and I expect to see it gradually abandoned. (It has already been abandoned in England, for example.) If a university wishes to offer its faculty protection against political retaliation for unpopular views, it can do that by writing into the employment contract that politics is an impermissible ground for termination. Tenure is no longer needed because of an absence of performance measures. These measures exist in abundance. Quality of teaching is readily measurable by student evaluations, provided care is taken to prevent teachers from courting popularity by easy grading and light assignments and student evaluations are supplemented by faculty observation of the classroom. Quality of research is readily measurable by grants, prizes, and above all by citations to the professor’s scholarly publications, weighted by the quality of the journal in which the citations appear (Richard Posner)

In some fields, such as mathematics, there is generally a significant falling off in academic output at a young age, and there is fear that without tenure these faculty would be turned out to pasture long before retirement age. But this is no different from the situation in professional sports, modeling, and other youthful occupations, where it is handled by an alteration in the wage profile. If a career in mathematics entails a sharp fall-off in market wages after, say, age 40, the academic market will compensate by offering disproportionately high wages to young mathematicians; otherwise, talented mathematicians will choose professions, such as economics, in which math skills are valued but productivity does not decline steeply with age. (Richard Posner)

Perhaps the strongest argument for academic tenure is that without it academics would be reluctant to undertake promising projects with a high risk of failure. But the situation is no different in "knowledge" firms such as software and pharmaceutical-drug producers, which encourage their scientists to undertake high-risk projects--and do not think it necessary to offer tenure. If most good new ideas are produced by young academics, then an institution that raises the average age of faculty, namely tenure, seems likely to reduce academic productivity. An interesting empirical project, therefore, would be to study the effect of England's abolition of tenure on the average age and productivity of English university faculties. (Richard Posner)

***

The traditional justification for academic tenure is that otherwise professors would be unwilling to express unpopular views for fear of being fired. This argument for academic tenure is extremely weak in the United States where several thousand colleges and universities compete for professors. In fact, tenure only became common at American universities in the 1920's. It is possible for academics with extremely unpopular views to gain an appointment with tenure at different institutions, as seen from the tenure of faculty who deny the holocaust, or a Ward Churchill at The University of Colorado with outrageous views on terrorism and other issues. The case for tenure is stronger in countries where governments control all universities, and can block academics with unpopular opinions from gaining and keeping appointments. Yet even that argument has become weaker with the rapidly growing international market for good academics. (Gary Becker)


Are there other persuasive arguments for academic tenure? Some have been made in the economics literature, including the alleged difficulty in judging the quality of teaching and research, the non-profit nature of universities, and still others. I have not found any of them persuasive- for example, there is rather widespread agreement in most departments about which are the good teachers, and also to a large extent about who has produced the more influential research. (Gary Becker)

***

If there was ever a time when it made sense for economics professors to be given tenure, that time has surely passed. The same is likely true of other university disciplines, and probably even more true for high-school and elementary school teachers. (Steven Levitt)

What does tenure do? It distorts people’s effort so that they face strong incentives early in their career (and presumably work very hard early on as a consequence) and very weak incentives forever after (and presumably work much less hard on average as a consequence). (Steven Levitt)

The idea that tenure protects scholars who are doing politically unpopular work strikes me as ludicrous. While I can imagine a situation where this issue might rarely arise, I am hard pressed to think of actual cases where it has been relevant. Tenure does an outstanding job of protecting scholars who do no work or terrible work, but is there anything in economics which is high quality but so controversial it would leave to a scholar being fired? Anyway, that is what markets are for. If one institution fires an academic primarily because they don’t like his or her politics or approach, there will be other schools happy to make the hire. There are, for instance, cases in recent years in economics where scholars have made up data, embezzled funds, etc. but still have found good jobs afterwards. (Steven Levitt)

Absent all schools moving together to get rid of tenure, what if one school chose to unilateerally revoke tenure. It seems to me that it might work out just fine for that school. It would have to pay the faculty a little extra to stay in a department without an insurance policy in the form of tenure. Importantly, though, the value of tenure is inversely related to how good you are. If you are way over the bar, you face almost no risk if tenure is abolished. So the really good people would require very small salary increases to compensate for no tenure, whereas the really bad, unproductive economists would need a much bigger subsidy to remain in a department with tenure gone. This works out fantastically well for the university because all the bad people end up leaving, the good people stay, and other good people from different institutions want to come to take advantage of the salary increase at the tenure-less school. If the U of C told me that they were going to revoke my tenure, but add $15,000 to my salary, I would be happy to take that trade. I’m sure many others would as well. By dumping one unproductive, previously tenured faculty member, the University could compensate ten others with the savings. (Steven Levitt)


Late update (8th of March). Greg Mankiw does not agree with Levitt (and implicitly, although he also doesn't seem to know Becker's and Posner's stance on the topic, with Becker and Posner). I just see it as Chicago Econ vs. Harvard Econ, really :-), and here I very much support the opinions of the mentioned people from Chicago; I don't think all Mankiw's (and others') concerns are in fact concerns, though some points are valid (Levitt also mentions those in counterbalance in his post, example: if this was a better mechanism, why isn't it applied in practice already?).

Monday, February 12, 2007

Does China have a problem with the gender imbalance? If so, how big of problem?

Economics at work! Compare this article from the BBC (echoing what I believe to be the 'general'- rather gloomy!- perspective on China's gender imbalance) and the viewpoints of economists Gary Becker and Richard Posner, who start from discussing whether there is any valid case for forbidding the 'sex selection' practice, but end up discussing a series of wider implications. While indeed in the short term (Just how short is short? Posner's favourite numbers seem to be 20-30 years...) China's "problem" could indeed be 'somewhat of a problem' (with the provision that- violence contained- all women should be better off...), I cannot but agree with the excellent analysis of Becker, complemented with further observations by Posner (I thought Posner's idea of using the societies that permit polygyny as a 'natural experiment' to provide some answers to the question of how much should China and other countries in similar situations worry about the gender imbalance, was an excellent one). I really think the market should be let to do its job; and, if anything, in terms of state intervention, polyandry should be allowed in these countries (if the problem turns into a PROBLEM, it would be practiced, more or less informally, anyhow). What's the problem with that? (Except for the fact that such a word probably equates blasphemy in such countries as China, where male domination and polygyny used to be the standard for ages: well, maybe it's high time for a change...)

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

On Dutch coffeeshops and the war on drugs

Since I recently blogged about libertarianism, the Netherlands is in some respects (however, mind you: NL is far from being a pure 'laissez faire' country in general) a champion in succesfully implementing libertarian policies. And they also seem to know what they are doing- their approach is very effective- as, for instance, this well organized Drug Policy Alliance website concisely explains. In fact, Becker or Posner are not the only ones who do not find economic (or hardly any, for that matter) arguments for waging the total war on drugs anywhere outside the Netherlands (with the focus on the USA).

For more informal, but still informed opinions, here's a post explaining the difference between Dutch coffeeshops and Dutch coffeehouses (with a linked Youtube amateur videoclip which probably wants to be a user's manual but fails and a bunch of other things...). Or- iff you read Romanian- you can also consult a surprinsingly well written article on the topic by Cosmin Popan, for Cotidianul, that I blogged about, among other things, some time ago.

PS. If you are already in or plan to visit A'dam soon, you can check out this local coffeeshop directory. That being said, for a first visit, I would rather spend my time in the Rijksmuseum than in any A'dam coffeeshop or De Wallen (for a second visit or a longer stay I would avoid 'touristic Amsterdam' altogether: this amazing city has so much more to offer), but hey, the most important idea is that you are free to choose! And nobody should be interfering with that right.

Monday, January 15, 2007

Becker and Posner on 'Libertarian Paternalism'

I have just read a wonderful critique of 'libertarian paternalism' by Gary Becker, complemented very nicely by Richard Posner. Some excerpts from both texts below (which also attempt a summary of the main arguments):


The term is indeed an oxymoron. Libertarianism, as expounded in John Stuart Mill's On Liberty, is the doctrine that government should confine its interventions in the private sector to what Mill called "other-regarding" acts, which is to say acts that cause harm to nonconsenting strangers, as distinct from "self-regarding" acts, which are acts that harm only oneself or people with whom one has consensual relations authorizing acts that may result in harm. So, for example, if you are hurt in a boxing match, that is a "self-regarding" event with which the government has no proper business, provided the boxer who hurt you was in compliance with rules--to which you had consented--governing the match, and provided you were of sound mind and so could give meaningful consent.


Paternalism is the opposite. It is the idea that someone else knows better than you do what is good for you, and therefore he should be free to interfere with your self-regarding acts. Paternalism makes perfectly good sense when the "pater" is indeed a father or other parent and the individual whose self-regarding acts are in issue is a child. In its more common sense, "paternalism" refers to governmental interference with the self-regarding acts of mentally competent adults, and so understood it is indeed the opposite of libertarianism. The yoking of the two in the oxymoron "libertarian paternalism" is an effort to soften the negative connotation of paternalism with the positive connotation of libertarianism.
(Posner)


A serious problem arises if libertarian paternalism is not just considered an intellectual exercise, but is supposed to be implemented in policies that control choices, such as how many calories people are allowed to consume, whether adults are allowed to use marijuana or smoke, or how much they can save. Even best-intentioned government officials should be considered subject to the same bounds on rationality, limits on self-control, myopia in looking forward, and the other cognitive defects that are supposed to affect choices by us ordinary individuals. Can one have the slightest degree of confidence that these officials will promote the interests of individuals better than these individuals do themselves?
(Becker)


One of the great weaknesses of "libertarian paternalism" is failure to weigh adequately the significance of the operation of the cognitive and psychological quirks emphasized by libertarian paternalists on government officials. The quirks are not a function of low IQ or a poor education; they are universal, although there is a tendency for the people least afflicted by them to enter those fields, such as gambling, speculation, arbitrage, and insurance, in which the quirks have the greatest negative effect on rational decision making. As Edward Glaeser has pointed out, the cost of these quirks to officials--who are not selected for immunity to them--is lower than the cost to consumers, because the officials are making decisions for other people rather than for themselves.
(Posner)

Friday, December 08, 2006

Financing college education in USA

Very pertinent recent viewpoints of Gary Becker and Richard Posner on the issue of whether the debt of students to finance their college education is too high, as the new Congress claims (they also blogged about these issues - focusing at that time on commercial vs. government subsidized student loans- about a year ago, see Becker's and respectively Posner's comment from then, as well as their replies to comments following those posts: Becker, Posner). David Card is is also in agreement with their answer (read the "Return to education" part from Card's interview; he also tackles in that interview many other very interesting things, inter alia tax rates and labour supply and increases in mimum wage). I thought for a long time that the US system where most people can borrow to go to college (as the old posts of Becker and Posner point out, another immediate issue here is how those loans are funded) and thus the opportunity to go to college is largely provided to anyone (although much more is needed to ensure this also for the most disadvantaged social categories- and much more so in terms of schooling at young ages, which is a different discussion but equally, if not even more, important) is an excellent one and if one (eg. any other country not having implemented such a system, including my own) wishes to copy anything from the US, this should be (should have been) really the first thing on the list. In his recent post mentioned above, Becker also discusses a very interesting alternative where there would be a full income-contingent loan program in place of the current system which currently operates mostly as a fixed interest rate system (apparently this rate is 7%; I didn't know this until now).

PS. I've also discovered the website of Pablo Pena a (Becker talks in his post about Pablo's research on tuition fee raises at private colleges), a PhD student from Chicago (on the job market this year) whom I met in Boston at a conference earlier this year. Now this guy really knows how to market himself! Pablo, chapeau!

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

On raising the federal minimum wage in the USA

I largely agree with Gary Becker and Richard Posner with reference to the Democrat proposal for raising the minimum wage in the USA. Despite the fact that the proposal is also supported (and to some extent, ignited to start with) by many remarkable economists, I do not think there is any undisputed, clear, evidence that the benefits would outweigh the costs, and moreover there are better alternatives that can be used towards the same (declared) goals (as, for instance, the Earned Income Tax Credit, first championed as the "negative income tax" by the late Milton Friedman; as Posner discusses in his post mentioned above, why not work towards making that more generous, since the EITC is probably a less inefficient tax than the minimum wage). At best, there is more research needed to have clear-cut policy recommendations. The discussions by Becker and Posner on their blog couldn't have been phrased better in such a short space.


Gary Becker is also pointing out that most economists probably do not support this view, albeit one can count, among other top economists, 5 Nobel Laureates in Economics, who do so (although, to my knowledge, none of them worked precisely in this field), fact which served advertising a lot this campaign. Here's an excerpt from his post:
A recent petition by over 600 economists, including 5 Nobel Laureates in Economics, advocated a phased-in rise in the federal minimum wage to amuch higher $7.25 per hour from the present $5.15 per hour. This petition received much attention, and the number of economists signing is impressive (and depressing). Still, the American Economic Association has over 20,000 members, and I suspect that a clear majority of these members would have refused to sign that petition if they had been asked. They believe, as I do, that the negative effects of a higher minimum wage would outweigh any positive effects. That is one reason I would surmise why only a fraction of the 35 living economists who received the Nobel Prize signed on to the petition--I believe all were asked to sign.

Controversy remains in the United States (and elsewhere) over the effects of the minimum wage mainly because past changes in the U.S. minimum wage have usually been too small to have large and easily detectable general effects on employment and unemployment. The effects of an increase to $7.25 per hour in the federal minimum wage that many Democrats in Congress are proposing would be large enough to be easily seen in the data. It would be a nice experiment from a strictly scientific point of view, for it would help resolve the controversy over whether the effects of large increases in the minimum wage would be clearly visible in data on employment, training, and some prices. Presumably, even the economists and others who are proposing this much higher minimum must believe that at some point a still higher minimum would cause too much harm. Otherwise, why not propose $10 or $15 per hour,or an even higher figure? I am confident that for this and other reasons, the actual immediate increase in the federal minimum wage is likely to be significantly lower than $2.10 per hour.

In fact, from and only from a pure scientific point of view, in agreement with Gary Becker's final lines in the fragment above, an increase of such a magnitude would simply be welcome and it would probably help- subsequent to thorough investigation of the effects, over a few years- end a controversy that goes on for quite a while now in the USA. As Becker conjectures however, if at all, the implemented increase would be significantly lower than the amount(s) proposed. And that would not probably serve very well any purpose...

Update: here's what Greg Mankiw thinks about the topic. Very interesting- and very plausible!- explanation for why the minimum wage is much more present in political discussions than the EITC.

Update 2: Greg Mankiw posts again something extremely interesting on the issue. Apparently the only issue on which economists seem indeed to be largely divided is the minimum wage. Hence, one can only agree with one idea in Becker's post mentioned above that, if anything, the increase in the federal minimum wage should be high enough so that its effects can be thoroughly investigated and this controversy cleared up. Given the deep divide among economists, this seems actually the first best scientific scenario...

Update 3: Mankiw with yet more views on pros and cons to raising the minimum wage and how can 600 economists be all wrong.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Economics and beyond

  • Some believe that Glenn Hubbard didn't take it so well when Ben Bernanke was chosen Fed Chairman. Among them, the Columbia Business School students are by far the most creative...
  • An excellent economics viewpoint of Gary Becker on legalizing polygamy. Although Richard Posner succesfully questions some of Becker's arguments, the main line in Professor Becker's comment remains untouched. Chapeau!
  • A very interesting (and with a great pedagogical potential) data analysis software developed by the team of Hans Rosling from the Karolinska Institute in Sweden. See also a video presentation by Prof. Rosling here.