1a Editie a Conferintei Economistilor Romani din Mediul Academic din Strainatate (ERMAS). Comunicat al Coordonatorilor.

La adresele web http://www.conferinta.econacademia.net si respectiv http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/ermas2014 veti gasi programul recent actualizat al Primei Editii a Conferintei Stiintifice a Economistilor Romani din Mediul Academic din Strainatate (ERMAS), gazduita de Universitatea Babes-Bolyai (UBB), Facultatea de Stiinte Economice si Gestiunea Afacerilor (FSEGA), la Cluj-Napoca, intre 18-22 August 2014 (potentiale completari/ actualizari pana la versiunea finala sunt posibile). Link-uri directe (PDFs) la structura generala a programului, si respectiv la programul detaliat pe sesiuni.

Inregistrarea tuturor celor interesati sa participe in audienta conferintei se face exclusiv prin formularul UBB-FSEGA http://www.econ.ubbcluj.ro/ermas2014/formular.php pana la data maxima de 30 iunie 2014. 

La conferinta ERMAS 2014 vor prezenta lucrari stiintifice si/sau vor participa in diferite dezbateri de interes public (vedeti si mai jos, si detaliat in program) in jur de 50 de economisti romani de succes (realizat sau potential), afiliati unora dintre cele cele mai renumite universitati sau institutii de cercetare, in domeniul stiintelor economice, din. e.g., SUA, Canada, sau tari ale Uniunii Europene, incluzand institutii din Romania. Pe langa acestia, invitati speciali in sesiuni tip masa-rotunda/ dezbatere deschisa sunt cativa reprezentanti cheie ai mediului de politici economice, precum si ai invatamantului superior si cercetarii, din Romania. Conferinta este o premiera absoluta in Romania, atat din perspectiva stiintelor economice, cat si a oricaror discipline stiintifice (plus popularizare/ dezbatere stiintifica), in general. Cateva sute de persoane, cu predilectie din mediul academic, dar si din alte medii precum cel antreprenorial, guvernamental, ONG, mass-media, vor participa, in expectanta, in audienta conferintei (cateva zeci fiind deja inregistrate).

Pe langa partea principala a programului conferintei, constand in prezentarile de lucrari stiintifice contribuite sau invitate din sesiunile paralele, sau prezentarile "keynote" din sesiunile plenare, atragem explicit atentia asupra unor sesiuni speciale, de potential interes general:

- sesiune de dezbatere pe politici economice de mare interes pentru Romania: luni dupa-masa, 18 august

- sesiune de sfaturi pentru tinerii si mai putin tinerii economisti: marti seara, 19 august

- sesiune dezbatere despre starea, politica si managementul cercetarii stiintifice din Romania, cu focus pe cercetarea economica: miercuri seara, 20 august

- sesiune de scurte comunicari-rezumat de cercetare folosind date din/ direct relevante pentru Romania: joi dimineata, 21 august

- sesiune despre viitoarele editii ale conferintei ERMAS- si alte activitati relevante ale Econacademia: joi seara, 21 august

Informatii complete despre initiativa, inclusiv despre tintele si asteptarile de termen scurt si lung ale conferintei ERMAS (in expectanta, anuala), sunt disponibile pe http://www.conferinta.econacademia.net. Pentru orice noutati si actualizari: https://twitter.com/econacademia sau http://www.noutati.econacademia.net.  

Toate aceste informatii se pot evident disemina liber (eventual adaptat corespunzator), prin orice mediu de comunicare. 

Asteptam sa va intalnim la ERMAS 2014,

Coordonatorii ERMAS 2014: Sebastian Buhai (Stockholm University), Mihai Copaciu (Banca Nationala a Romaniei), Cosmin Ilut (Duke University) si Cristian Litan (Universitatea Babes-Bolyai)

PS. In momentul acesta-- deci la pranz, 6 iunie 2014-- mai sunt exact 5 locuri ramase pentru persoane potential interesate de a participa in cursul asociat ERMAS 2014, "Big Data Econometrics" (BDE), instructor Otilia Boldea, Tilburg University. Inscrierea se face in baza principiului "first come, first served", pana maxim la 30 iunie. Detalii complete despre curs, inclusiv modalitatea de inscriere (atentie: inscrierea la curs e SEPARATA de inregistrarea ca participant in audienta conferintei; in particular, toate persoanele inscrise la BDE, si interesate de conferinta, trebuie sa se inregistreze si in audienta conferintei, folosind formularul UBB-FSEGA mentionat mai sus; mutatis mutandis, persoanele inregistrate in audienta conferintei nu sunt automat inscrise si la curs, inscrierea la curs presupunand in prealabil primirea unui email confirmare de la instructorul cursului, conform instructiunilor)

Branding Romania: "Un Gigel in plus nu mai conteaza"

Evenimentul de fata find mult prea important pentru un tweet, un blogpost se impune.

Breaking News

Andrei Plesu este castigatorul detasat al concursului 'Branding Romania' cu intraductibila, sui generis mioritica, magistrala contributie "Un Gigel in plus nu mai conteaza"  (Ce e drept, concurenta nu a fost chiar fabuloasa.)

Despre economia Romaniei (si nu numai). Fragmente dintr-un interviu nepublicat

Cat de “negru” considerati ca va fi 2012 din punct de vedere economico/financiar si cum ar putea fi afectata Romania?

Nu avem, din nefericire, motive sa jubilam. Pe fondul deteriorarii perspectivei economice in general, si datorita crizei din zona euro in particular, 2012 va fi incert si pentru Romania.  Dupa cum stim la ora asta, toate agentiile globale au revizuit in scadere previziunile privind evolutia economiilor europene, din eurozona si din afara ei, incluzand aici FMI, Banca Mondiala, BERD etc. Fara sa dau prea multe detalii asupra a ceea ce puteti gasi practic in toate aceste rapoarte, fac o scurta trecere in revista a catorva dintre aspectele economice care ar putea fi direct afectate in Romania (NB: discutii mai specifice despre unele aspecte sunt prezente si in alte parti din acest interviu):

-       exporturile; criza eurozonei ar putea afecta cei mai importanti parteneri comerciali ai Romaniei (peste 70% din comertul exterior—ca volum exporturi plus importuri—este cu statele UE, in particular Italia, Germania si Franta), reducand substantial perspectiva exporturilor romanesti, unde nu stateam pe roze nici pana acum (deficitul comercial in Octombrie 2011 era de 747 milioane de euro, de unde am “revenit” de la mai rau)

-       accesul la credite; exista posibilitatea ca bancile straine (care detin 80% din activele bancare din Romania) sa isi reduca critic expunerea pe pietele emergente din centrul si estul Europei pe fondul crizei din eurozona (o restrangere substantiala a creditarii s-a facut deja in trimestrul trei al 2011).

-       riscul financiar; tot prin relatiile financiar-bancare importante cu banci expuse crizei euro-zonei, varianta (“spread”-ul) CDS-urilor ar putea sa creasca si mai mult (in cazul Romaniei s-a marit deja cu peste dublul mediei caracteristice economiilor emergente), implicand incertitudine mult marita pe piata financiara

Catalizat de impactul asupra dimensiunilor economice de mai sus, se pot anticipa si consecinte negative indirecte, de exemplu nevoia de noi masuri de austeritate bugetara, avand in vedere ca avem deja  imprumuturi foarte mari (transa recenta de 5 bilioane de euro de la FMI adaugandu-se imprumutului de 27 bilioane garantat de FMI si UE in 2009) si nivelul deficitului bugetar maxim e fixat, conform acordurilor cu creditorii; inrautatirea indicatorilor pietei muncii (lipsa noilor locuri de munca, somaj in crestere, salarii inghetate, ajutoare sociale anulate s.a.m.d); reducerea bugetelor alocate educatiei si cercetarii, unde suntem mult sub tintele propuse si incredibil de mult sub cele optime s.a.m.d. Cert este ca va fi nevoie de eforturi mari pentru a sustine o crestere economica pozitiva in viitorul apropiat. Discut in finalul acestui interviu despre masuri implementabile in viitorul apropiat care ar putea ameliora aceasta perspectiva economica.

 [...]

Am vazut ca sunteti la curent cu ceea ce se intampla in Romania (am vazut pe blog ca ati postat un editorial a lui Tapalaga).  Care ar putea fi cateva masuri pentru evitarea unei recesiuni in Romania (asa cum multi se astepta pentru 2012)?

In lipsa spatiului, ma voi limita doar la doua categorii principale (plus cateva subcategorii) de masuri pe care le consider importante pentru viitorul apropiat.

-       Guvern de tehnocrati si implicare mult mai mare a electoratului (legislativului). In momentul in care ar fi nevoie de ei mai mult ca niciodata, echipa guvernamentala nu are un singur economist credibil. In plus, alegatorii nu sunt implicati deloc in decizii economice care ii afecteaza imediat. Sa facem o paralela intre doua democratii-- in teorie ambele functionale. In SUA, Presedintele isi ia foarte in serios rolul de se consulta (in practica, de a urma recomandarile)  pe orice tema economica cu echipa sa de consilierii economici (“Council of Economic Advisers”, i.e. CEA) si de convinge publicul/legislativul asupra necesitatii unor masuri recomandate de acestia; pozitia este perfect descrisa de citatul “spuneti-mi ce e corect, si ma voi gandi cum sa vand asta cel mai bine” (conversatie publicata intr-un memoriu CEA, intre Presedintele Obama si Christina Romer, fosta sefa a CEA). In Romania, politicile economice se decid in aparenta fara consultarea expertilor si se implementeaza fara implicarea alegatorilor (alternativ, a reprezentatilor acestora in Parlament), prin “asumarea raspunderii” Guvernului; pozitia Executivului (si a Presedintiei) aduce deci mai mult cu “nu va bateti capul, stim noi bine ce facem”[1].

-       Incetarea reducerii cheltuielilor bugetare si axarea pe reforme structurale pentru crestere durabila pe termen lung, in (cvasi)recesiuni. Multe din masurile de consolidare fiscala de pana acum, chiar si cele justificabile pe termen mediu si lung, au fost implementate prea brusc, la momentul inoportun. Reducerea cheltuielilor bugetare in perioade de recesiune curenta sau anticipata este controversata: nu exista o minoritate consistenta de economisti care sa le recomande fara rezerve. Desi nu avem un model teoretic cu previziuni precise, cele mai robuste rezultate empirice arata ca austeritatea in episoade de recesiune a fost urmata de episoade de prelungire, sau chiar agravare a recesiunii. In lipsa unor concluzii decisive in privinta cauzalitatii, avem suficiente motive sa anticipam efecte negative; ori cand vorbim de politici economice, bunastarea cetatenilor este obiectivul prioritar. Accentul trebuie pus pe reforme structurale de relansare economica, care sa induca o crestere economica durabila. Foarte succint, exemple de asemenea masuri necesare in Romania ar fi (pe langa masurile neimplementate de mai jos, unele au fost implementate doar superficial/partial si trebuie continuate/intensificate; in alte cazuri unele reforme s-au implementat exact pe dos, vezi de exemplu reducerea unor cheltuieli de finantare a cercetarii ca parte a pachetului de masuri de austeritate etc.):

o    Reforme ale pietei muncii. In contextul Romaniei, masurile pe partea cererii fortei de munca sunt in prezent prioritare, intre ele stimularea crearii de noi locuri de munca. Pe de alta parte masuri de stimulare a participarii in forta de munca ar trebui sa ramana in agenda tot timpul (superficial unele au fost implementate; de remarcat insa aici ca masuri gen reducerea ajutoarelor de somaj in perioade de recesiune, cand factual problema e lipsa locurilor de munca, dovedesc orice altceva decat competenta si responsabilitate sociala).

o    Reforme de privatizare. Privatizarea marilor companii de stat a fost de mult discutata, mult promisa, dar inca neefectuata; costurile intarzierilor sunt uriase. Privatizarea sistemului medical (NB facuta inteligent: copierea sistemului olandez sau elvetian “dupa ureche” nu e o solutie) este un alt exercitiu care trebuie finalizat etc.

o  Reforme de incurajare a antreprenoriatului. Masuri din aceasta categorie includ exemple gen stimularea prin deduceri de taxe in primii ani de activitate antreprenoriala, reducerea birocratiei necesare deschiderii unei afaceri proprii (in iunie 2011 eram pe locul 63 in lume din punct de vedere a cat de usor este sa devii antreprenor si pe locul 72 in clasificarea a cat de usor este sa functionezi ca antreprenor; cred ca se poate mai bine)

o    Reforme pentru R&D. Include cresterea investitiei in activitatile de cercetare si dezvoltare (R&D), si, implicit, in adaptarea si sustinerea invatamantului pentru a produce capitalul uman necesar acestor activitati.

o    Masuri de stimulare a investitiilor private din strainatate. Atragerea de capital privat este in prezent esentiala pentru Romania. Alternative existente pentru investitii (publice si/sau private) precum fondurile europene structurale si de coeziune (chiar la o rata de absorbtie de multe ori mai mare decat cea de pana acum) sau genul de parteneriate public-privat in derulare nu sunt suficiente sau neaparat sustenabile.

Puteti citi intreg documentul (10 intrebari + raspunsuri) in format PDF aici. 

---

[1] Citatul e imaginar, insa din categoria celor reale oferite de Executiv, si mai ales de Presedintie. Un exemplu elocvent din discursul recent  al domnului Basescu la investirea noului guvern: “Nu pot cere unui popor sa inteleaga prompt ce trebuie sa faca un guvern pentru ca tara sa nu se prabuseasca”.

Romanian article of the week: Dan Tapalaga with "Best of Boc, Blaga, Paleologu"

This blogpost is only for those who can read Romanian (and ultimately really regards only those still interested  in the political life, in particular concerned with various elections, in Romania-- who are less and less every day, including here the Romanians themselves; a by-product of the article linked below is in fact providing a rationale to explain that trend).

Asadar, un articol excelent al lui Dan Tapalaga; as zice probabil cel mai bun din tot ce am citit scris de el in ultima vreme. Nu necesita alte comentarii.

PS. Disclaimer: am o parere in genere destul de buna (uneori chiar prea pozitiva) despre Toader Paleologu, pe care il stiu personal pana la un punct (e.g., vezi aici sau aici-- istoria de la ultimul link fiind probabil rezumata prin "[] I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship"), doar ca omul nu intelege ca avantajul sau comparativ e in diplomatie, nu in politica autohtona (eventual la Ministerul de Externe... dar nu a fost si nu este momentul pentru asta nici acum; de fapt si acolo realizez ca am exagerat, exista mult mai multe incertitudini care trebuie rezolvate-- the unknown unknowns...-- decat ambitia personala). Si cine sa ii spuna asta, daca nu cei cu intentii bune, care inteleg ce este acela un avantaj comparativ?... Mais, à bon entendeur, salut!

Econlinks: On crises. And opportunities

• Crises and opportunities in Balkan science policy (start, more). A word of caution for my Romanian pals, among whom a new risk of self-denying optimism-- expected to turn into the usual complacency-- appears contagious: con calma, this is at best a mediocre start (though, granted, a start it is). Not to mention that before reaching (competing with?) the West, the East needs to tackle (be inspired by?) the more (and increasingly so) academically attractive South.
• ...in which it is revealed that crises may hide huge opportunities. Earlier on the Kseniya phenomenon.
• A wealth of economic ideas? Taxing prostitution in the Netherlands and witchcraft in Romania.  Good luck.
• Chess crisis: what did they give Magnus to drink/smoke in Holland?! In words.
• Opportunities? Best predictors of the number of heterosexual sex partners.
• Somebody save Maastricht, tourists will desert it. 
• In praise of reading and fiction: Mario Vargas Llosa like no other. Also, hopes that the Literature Nobel Committee has finally decided to do a Nobel Committee job.

Econlinks: The 'Economics and Reality' edition

• Harald Uhlig has an interesting recent paper entitled "Economics and Reality"  (intentionally recalling Sims's 1980 ECMA, indeed) . While he discusses the relationship between Economics and Reality (yep, isn't that what you all hope to hear?) mainly in terms of Macroeconomics (you know, the black sheep of the family), I thought he does that in an informative and at the same time very concise way. Hence, highly recommended; I'll quote his end (optimistic, for once...) summary, to get you in the mood: "Reality, i.e. empirical evidence influences economic thinking and theory and vice versa -- but it does not do so in textbook fashion. Jolted by new empirical and theoretical insights and subjected to the fickleness of attention, the frontier of our sciences lurches forward to the unknown territory of ever more profound understanding. If it moves in circles, it hopefully does so on even higher levels. Practical economics and economic policy follows, with considerable distance. Perhaps, this is how it has to be."

• Colbert vs. Mankiw Part 1. Mankiw vs. Colbert Part 2. And here's how it all got started. Obviously we want serious blood, this is just teasing each other. We want more, we want war: we want the Colbert-Mankiw interview! It ain't gonna be easy, after all recall that his Harvard Econ colleague Freeman was a disaster on the Colbert Report (here is an updated link that seems to work)-- albeit his other Harvard colleague Fryer did eventually pretty well (3rd bullet point). But Mankiw is no nonsense, so this could be tough :-). Bets are open!
  

• Hopeless and hapless Romania: well, you do get what you wish for..., where "disappointing" is a euphemism. 
• A must read (also for philosophers and 'other social scientists'): Avinash Dixit's " My Philosophy of Economics, Life, and Everything (Not!)", the sequel to his by now (in)famous "My System of Work (Not!)" . As smart and humorous as always.
• And finally. Off with you, Mr. Pitt: here cometh the Age of the Wimp!

Transylvania, Scania, Jutland

I have just arrived in Kolding (remember Kolding in winter time? It is even more beautiful now) for a workshop tomorrow, after a short wedding detour to Helsingborg, which looks and feels way more exciting than seen from Hamlet's side of the Øresund (or Öresund, if you fancy Swedish more than Danish). This, in turn, followed some busy days in Cluj --Transylvanian citadel unable to compete landscape-wise with Scandinavian harbours & fjords, but managing instead several decent cafés/wine bars/beer gardens that start to look capable of rewarding one's hard days' nights. At the cost of detail, I'll spare your waiting and tell you upfront that Café Bulgakov won the hard-fought contest, both in terms of atmosphere and food quality (dramatic improvement since a few years ago); where, obviously, '"I'm judge and jury and executioner too'"... If they worked on expanding the selection of Belgian beers--beyond the lovely, but lonely, Leffe--and considered polishing their wine list, I would see them as top contender for the Transylvanian café in Cluj.

PS. I know you are anxiously waiting for my Shanghai impressions. And for my Boston foodies recommendations. And for details of my half-hour NCN (=Napoca Cable Network) live interview in their "Cluj zi de zi" rubric, a couple of days ago. Soon.

Shawms and bagpipes

Superlative medieval tones, and a combined use of Romanian & Latin lyrics, in Mille Anni Passi Sunt. Plus, you cannot afford to miss my other personal favourites (including videoclips of live --ad litteram-- shows): Dulcissima, O Varium Fortune, Venus Vina Musica, Totentanz, Chou Chou Sheng, Ballade de Mercy, Suam Elle Ires. A total medieval feast, by the extremely creative Corvus Corax!

(with credits to The Eclectic Metalhead, and YouTube).

Indignation. Leila. Zigeunerweisen. Leila

For some reason I (once in a while) remember something Supachai Panichpakdi, then-WTO boss, said at a keynote speach in a Rotterdam conference celebrating 100 years since the birth of Jan Tinbergen (earlier on this blog, in Romanian): namely that we, then-PhD students in Economics, should stop reading [all sorts of books, papers etc.] and start writing immediately [papers, books, anything?], without wasting any further time (footnote here: -- which I do not know if Blogger can handle-- next to that, Dr. Panichpakdi, who also appeared to speak more than decent Dutch, had all sort of nice memories involving his PhD supervisor, Jan Tinbergen, and, my favourite part, he had plenty of anecdotes about the intense interactions between himself, Pascal Lamy, the-- ironically-- current WTO boss, then- EU Commissioner for Trade, and Robert Zoellick, current World Bank boss, then-US Trade Representative; Lamy said later that year that 'Panichpakdi talks too much', when I brought that up to him, in a "Young European Citizen Convention" videoconference, where we could ask him questions...). Now, the thing is that I am more and more convinced (despite similar advice from other, call them, "seniors") that Panichpakdi was dead wrong in that particular suggestion: there is simply too much written stuff around, and most of it is worthless (vox populi: crap); you don't need to be part of that. Au contraire, in order to make a(ny) difference (assuming you do not get significant utility from simply writing down stuff, that is, from the action of writing/typing per se...), you'd better take all the time in the world and read sufficiently... before you write anything. I mean, you're still in gain committing the error of too much reading (can one ever err there?), then that of too much writing, all else equal. Some caveats surely apply (some revolve around the slight alteration "live sufficiently", instead of "read sufficiently.. before you write anything"), but no more space for those here: I wrote too much already :-).

Anyway, what I actually wanted to bore you with is that I have recently returned from home, i.e. Cluj, Transylvania, Vampire Empire, which nowadays happens to be part of Romania (more), a country where in order to get a new, biometric, passport, you have to wait no less than 20 (twenty! and they stress: week)days. In the Netherlands or Denmark (or any other sane country) you get the same, biometric, passport in 5 (five) days. And there they also do not (implicitly or explicitly) ask if you agree to be fingerprinted because (as in my country, the default assumption is that) you, as in you-citizen, might believe there is some connection of fingerprinting/digital photography/anything involving a biometric passport to a peculiar 666 number, or some-- whatever-- religion, or to both. Pathetic. And still (what a child, ain't it?), I insist: I want to have my Romanian (biometric or not) passport. I am by now 99% sure that Marcus Messner's so perfectly displayed indignation (hopefully they get back to their senses in that Nobel Literature committee and give the next prize to Roth, rather than persisting in rewarding mediocrity) is simply a most natural feeling, with or without Olivia (or Bertrand Russell) in the background.

Maybe it is better to talk/write about what we love. So here she is once again, Leila: this time together with Sarasate and his Zigeunerweisen (earlier). More about Pablo de Sarasate's masterpiece (including an incredible 1904 recording of Sarasate himself playing it!). More on Leila's Zigeunerweisen. Fabulous!

The hard road to Transylvania

4 hours inside a KLM/Malev plane that just wouldn't take off at Schiphol (after 2 extra hours of waiting for the-- eventually, wrong-- plane to arrive); a (involuntary, for a change) night spent in beautiful but frozen Budapest (helped by the fact that my friend Balint was very inspired for the dinner suggestion; even the house white wine was very decent!-- though nothing like my favourite Hungarian white); quality time the next day (inter alia, absolutely great mushroom soup and venison with juniper berries, for lunch!) spent with my good old friend, master of all things Budapest, Daniel, while waiting for the uncertainty concerning trains towards Cluj to be resolved; and partly resolved it was after endless hours, although they forgot to provide a 1st class (they were considerate enough to give me a full 2nd class compartment instead, all the >8 hours long trip...enough time to go through quite a few Econometrica articles, tons of coffee, and a number of jazz and classical music albums...); but, finally, Transylvania it is, for the last couple of days: great feeling to be home. All nice and well, for the rest; among other things, my Xmas present arrived just in time, with compliments from the EU Commission.

Oh, and not to forget: You Baffle Me... (by the one and only female equivalent of Yann Tiersen out there, Shannon Wright; e.g. Shannon can also do this, or this, or this, or this.., and much much more, check out for instance all her wonderful Let in the Light album; plus, naturally, she had to collaborate on a fantastic album with Tiersen : for instance, this and this are simply perfect).

Sunday night econlinks

• Good, Gelman is even more pissed off with Greenspun's to-a-large-extent-nonsense than I was: 9th bullet point.

• The culture of Old Europe (aka, new European Union...), via Gabi Istrate; I've also promised him I would carefully look at/comment on this: the promise is still there, the time-- not yet... :-).

• I am very curious how big this can/will get. After all, a whole Nobel might be at stake (I confess: I never really liked Gore, on any dimension; I still think he is submediocre or worse; however, I thought/still think that some of the climate guys/gals who won within the IPCC were more than decent...). This is not so much about scepticism (of any kind/degree), but first and foremost about scientific honesty. Seemingly a very rare quality today.

• The current world chess champ was in Romania some days ago, but nobody within the national mass media seems to have noticed. Of course not, they are all busy with one of the most pathetic presidential elections ever; they always manage to keep themselves busy with the least important things.

• The battle of the IT giants takes every possible form. In case you're wondering whom I am putting my money on, here's something to help you; these guys seem to know what's important for tomorrow: a small step in that direction with a (preliminary version of) automatic captioning for YouTube .

• I guess I am not in such of an intimate relationship with Tokyo after all (despite this...), since I didn't manage to meet any of the city's "groundbreakers" (though ok, fine, between me and you only: the truth is that I've been playing hard to get with Tao Okamoto)

• Only reinforces one point Easterly (and a minority of others) has been stressing all the time; this is how development should be done: help them to help themselves.

• The underrated Economist: A.C. Pigou.

• The research agenda of some of my LMDG colleagues: enter Rasmus Lentz and co-authors.

• "[s]urely the biggest police action we have ever had in Danish history" or one of the rare occasions when I am glad that I am not closer to Copenhagen...

Weekend econlinks

• Sharing information in scientific research: yes/no/when. Interesting, but the analysis here is applicable only in the context of some sciences (arguably, not most). Moreover, sharing by means of co-authorship is discussed at best indirectly (if one is willing to expand on their repeated interaction game thread...). But my major "disagreement" has to do with their upshot: my conjecture is that know-how sharing is, ceteris paribus, over all disciplines, U-shaped in the degree of competition (and, since I also believe that, overall, very high competition dominates very low competition equilibria, you already know what my prior of the ideal is). Remains however an open empirical question for now.

• We are what we ate: Tony Judt's culinary autobiography. Reminds me that (fortunately) I have only got to know top Indian restaurants in London (in general, Londonese Indian cuisine is probably, up to now, my favourite in the world; though surely there is a variance): a lot must have changed.

• Stanford also jumped in Google's bandwagon of online (dissertation) publishing.

• David Brooks on "the other education": concise and well written. I usually call this second education "exposure". The vast majority of people I've met hardly had any.

• Hyperopia... as a concern.

• Cheaptalk on the election process of Econometric Society Fellows. Not extremely surprising or, for that matter, singular within Economics; after all, they almost forgot Hurwicz for the Nobel Prize..., for largely the same reason: most of the people who used to propose and lobby for him died at some point... I think Ely is right: focus on the young people-- at least that would be an attempt to solve the problem for the future... And yes, for potential candidates why wouldn't you just look to the Econometrica editions (Lones Smith's suggestion in the comments)...

• Music critic review: mode d'emploi, by John Adams.

• Sex toy research. Or Ariely in the quest for another Nobel Ig :-). Goes without saying that I am extremely interested in the results.

• Philip Greenspun on universities and economic growth; via Razvan, on Ad Astra. First impression: he writes much and he misunderstands a lot; particularly the Economics of it all (no, he is not qualified to understand what is clear and what is controversial in Clark's book, to give but one example). Also, doesn't seem to realize (not sure whether qualifying this as voluntary misrepresentation would be better or worse...) the difference between statistical and anectodal evidence. And, in general, he doesn't seem to have decided whether his target is to make people incensed at or interested in what he has to say. BUT, although he errs nearly everywhere else, I agree that a. much change is needed in the way teaching in most universities is done nowadays (see also the 3rd bullet point here on opinions on the value of college education & all that jazz); b. he has some very decent ideas there (others had/have them too) and c. these changes would not cost too much, with the benefit very likely to outweigh that cost. (Probably) Inadvertently, Greenspun is actually arguing for a "Japanese approach" (which the Japanese apply to both teaching and on-the-job training): give a rather broad ("customer-based", if you want some context) training, be able to/ focus on study/work in teams, always help the new/junior ones etc. etc. There is however a known problem with the (standard) Japanese perspective to (life-long) education that I am not sure Greenspun is aware of... Simply put, you really do not want to give no/wrong incentives at the very top of the ability distribution.

• One of the two prediction markets on the 2009 Romanian Presidential Election is now closed and cashed-out (the other one is also "closed", but waiting for the final results on Dec 6th), as the official First Round results of that election are out. Several participants won (virtual) money (yours truly included), but the congratulations go to Dan, as he is the one who won the most (a fortune!). Which means that he is obviously going to pay for the (very good: e.g. the French on this list?) wine, with the occasion of our next meeting :-).

Top Gear in Romania. Or: keep up with the Sandero!

If you're not going to die of laughter before that, you will when the Dacia Sandero appears (and overtakes them) :-). Oh, and this gem from Clarkson is to save for further reference: "If Simon Cowell came here [Mamaia, Romania], they'd put him on income support". Brilliant!

Thanks to George for the tip!

PS. Looking forward for the rest of the upload on YouTube. UPDATE, 17 nov: second and respectively, last part of the episode, with thanks to Bogdan. Watch them before they are removed from YouTube.

Sunday econlinks

• One of the reasons I just love reading Landsburg: he is acid and funny. Here's something that hopefully will open a longer exchange between him and Krugman: I really think Steve Landsburg is the proper counterpart to Paul Krugman in any debate (NB: Mankiw is great, but too serious and not engaging--understandably-- enough in the type of debate Krugman seems to love). And I tell you beforehand that I shall bet all my money on Landsburg :-). This for instance should be kept for posterity: "But sometimes I think Paul Krugman is out to top them all, by excelling in two activities that are not just disparate but diametrically opposed: economics (for which he was awarded a well-deserved Nobel Prize) and obliviousness to the lessons of economics (for which he’s been awarded a column at the New York Times)."

• The semicolon is dead; long live (or rather: resurrected is) the interrobang?!

• Who should go to college and who should pay for it: with many specialist opinions (via MR). Signalling seems to be dominating as point of view, though I myself think that university also has a genuine positive effect (I agree that matters most for the students in the top of the ability distribution). Else, all might be boiling down in the limit to competition between cats with fraudulent diplomas (via boingboing, via MR).

• Kirman has been writing about these things for quite a while now (with high frequency recently), and almost always on such a revolted tone; these things are happening within Economics, for quite some years now, much of what he mentions is mainstream or closeby (think of social interactions and networks, herding behaviour in finance etc). Plus arguing for discarding these old and well known models (my belief is that most serious economists are very well aware of their limitations for each specific context), just for the sake of discarding them, is madness (who is ideologue here?...). I really don't think this is the way one should argue for different approaches. All my respect for Alan Kirman's scientific work, but with his (especially recent) comments he does seem to go/fall a long way in the direction of non-Economists misinterpreting Econ fundamentals (first bullet point), or, worse, of the several nonsense people writing now and then in The Guardian, e.g. here (6th bullet point) or here.

• The "10 simple rules for scientists" collection at PloS Computational Biology (via MR). Some are redundant, others are great; within the latter category, I think everybody should memorize the "10 simple rules for doing your best research, according to Hamming" (though ok..., rules 5 and 10 are very much location-specific :-)).

• La mémoire refoulée de la Roumanie-- le communisme reste "une abstraction".

• Tim Harford on the "Jamie Oliver Feed Me Beter" experiment in UK schools. Features recent econ research analysing effects of that experiment, by Michele Belot and Jonathan James; you can download a draft version here. The preliminary results suggest that good food has considerable positive effect on educational outcomes. Extrapolating: so stop telling me not to spend my money on Michelin-starred restaurants :-).

• The young Viking is on top of the world right now, according to the unofficial 14 Nov ELO ratings (though I am dissapointed he let Kramnik win the Tal Memorial this year, Carlsen tying for second with Ivanchuk). See also a (happy) Norwegian article on the matter(via Susan Polgar).

• I think "wine critics/commentators" should move-- what they should have done a long time ago-- to identify / classify wine quality ranges, rather than preserve the current practice of grading on a 1 -100 scale. In any case, the last paragraph in this article is the one to retain.

• Less then a week left before the Prediction Markets on the upcoming Romanian Presidentials close: don't waste the opportunity to trade your favourite Presidential stock! :-).

Econlinks

• Endless Summers (via Mankiw). Supercilious he might well be, but some of us still find him absolutely fascinating-- I think I am (in the process of) understanding why :-). Earlier (first bullet point).

• On the poetic prehistory of development economics: a very interesting post by Adam Martin on Easterly's Aid Watchers blog.

• They cannot be blamed for defending/arguing what's in their best interest (click on the British flag in the upper right corner to get to the article in English, if you do not see it immediately through the link above); however, in my opinion, their general case is overstated: most of the translation services as hitherto understood are redundant. There is still a case (and a premium) for translation services from/to Arabic, Mandarin, Japanese & the like, but certainly not for European to European languages, and certainly not in countries from Scandinavia or Benelux...

• Top 100 best films of the decade (?). To be honest, I have seen to date only one film from their top 10. But I did see quite a few from the range 10-20 and, if this hierarchy makes any sense, I ought to definitely see anything that beats the movies at positions 16, 20 or 21, which are all in my very own all-time top 26. Quite impressive is also that Romanian director Cristi Mungiu's film "4 luni, 3 saptamani si 2 zile" is number 14 in this ranking (this movie is in my priority to-see list). See also my earlier entry on The December Children.

• Market-design presentations at a conference in honour of Paul Milgrom, by some of the world's best researchers in this field (via Al Roth on Market Design)



• Did you forget about the Romanian '09 Presidential Election Prediction Markets?! Participate: it's fun!

Prediction markets for the upcoming Romanian Presidential election

I opened up two distinct markets (with the help of InklingMarkets-- hat tip to Al Roth, on Market Design), both active until November 21st (the first election round is on November 22nd, the eventual second one on December 6th) :

• Who will win the FIRST ROUND of the 2009 Presidential elections in Romania?

• Who will win the 2009 Presidential elections in Romania?

Sign up and trade!

PS1. Hope I didn't make any mistakes; I put these up in less than 5 minutes :-).

PS2. Although you might really not share this opinion, I 'conjecture' that, if the outcome is not clear in the first election round, the future President will eventually be the first round's runner-up. Wanna trade against that? See above :-).

Sunday econlinks

• An interesting debate in the latest issue of Capitalism and Society on the current status of Economics and other Social Sciences, worth reading especially for the two comments to the leading article on the theme. Unfortunately, Jon Elster, in his "Excessive Ambitions", otherwise a welcome (and relatively informed) outsider's critique, does not manage to rise up to his declared ambitions of debunking the status quo / portraying "the persistence in the economic profession and elsewhere of these useless or harmful models", and eventually falls easy prey to his commenters: Pierre-André Chiappori (who, very elegantly, but unmistakenly, tackles most of the points raised by Elster in his criticism of economic theory and testing its predictions) and respectively, David Hendry (who virtually destroys Elster's line of reasoning and conclusions on empirical modelling in Economics). To add up to that, beyond the many (surprising!) fallacies that Elster commits in his scientific criticism (not even half of them acknowledged, e.g. his sole reliance on third-party sources in the discussion of the criticism to the empirics is somewhat revealed, however the very selected sample of those sources --strategy common also to his earlier sections-- does not seem at all problematic to the author), what strikes me throughout his text is his often bringing up the lack of "humility" of economists (e.g., "The competence of economists may not be in question, but their humility is"), although in reading his piece I was rather intrigued by Elster's own absence of humility whatsoever in his strongly opinionated, though insufficiently argued, assessment... I was really hoping for something more serious.
• Solving the public-goods free rider problem using neuronal measures of economic value. Looks super interesting!
• "[D]oes conspicuous consumption fall and efficiency increase in a society in which income is conspicuous?" or some of the potentially positive implications (research-wise only...) of Norway's recent crazy move to make public all tax records of its (tax-paying) residents...
• Even Robert Parker can make a total mess of himself when it comes to wine blind tasting (via cheaptalk). And a short review of a new wine book by somebody who really doesn't like Parker (thanks to Fred for the link).
• "Wellicht komt er ooit een nieuw paradigma dat voor de economische wetenschap net zo revolutionair zal zijn als kwantummechanica is geweest voor de natuurkunde. Tot die tijd is het beter om te blijven schipperen met de kapstokken die we hebben in plaats van alles jassen op één grote hoop te gooien." door Wouter den Haan, op MeJudice
• An older interview with the foremost cafeteria Keynesian (Part 1, Part 2). I only agree with about 50% of what he's saying here... And I think some are just too fast in dismissing Milton Friedman, but... on verra.
• Norman Manea on Herta Muller's Literature Nobel. Though ultimately there isn't much in there about her Nobel..., which might actually be the whole idea of that post.
• Brinkmann, Ehrman and the fall of the Berlin Wall. Very interesting, all news to me.
• Is shouting the new spanking? Hopefully not.
• I generally agree, though, for instance, Econophysicists seem to have a hard time both on the Economics and on the Physics academic/ publishing market. Not that I wonder much why that is the case, but others may...
  

Econlinks

• Eric Maskin on the financial crisis (Mankiw, Cheaptalk and MR link to this interview, among others). Maskin is one of the smartest persons alive, so this is mandatory-- a must read in particular for those who'd like to crucify all economic theorists :-). I would also link however to a very interesting blogpost by Harald Uhlig, on VoxEU (a summary of his recent NBER working paper): he really extends the Diamond and Dybvig (1983) bank run model that Maskin starts with, such that it incorporates the stylized facts specific to the current financial crisis. Uhlig also makes very clear that this is just one way to view things and in fact that insolvency rather than illiquidity might have been the main culprit: "It is possible that the appropriate perspective is one of insolvency rather than illiquidity, and future research will hopefully sort this out."

• Of course Oliver Hart should have won this year's Nobel as well (and Bengt Holmstrom). I cannot but agree with Aghion here, as I made clear in my prediction for the Econ Nobel within the last 3 years... Returning to Elinor Ostrom, there are by now many reactions. Most of them seem to be as confused /skeptical as I was after the release of the results, e.g. Ely, Baliga, Levitt (I disagree with Levitt's "suspicion" that most young economists also did not hear about Williamson), to some extent even Cowen ("I was delighted to hear of Ostrom winning (which I had not expected) but frankly it makes the omission of Gordon Tullock all the more glaring" ) or Krugman ("I wasn’t familiar with Ostrom’s work"); nevertheless Economists who work /worked in public choice and related (the tragedy of the commons, in particular) seem delighted with the choice, e.g. Spence, Glaeser, Romer, Smith, Tabarrok, Gächter (the latter cited in this Science short article on the Econ Nobels). The conclusion of all this (once again) is that I really have to read Ostrom's main works sometime in the near future (meanwhile I also found out that apparently she's got at least one article in a mainstream Economics journal)-- and to accept that yes, to a great extent, we are all very ignorant.

• The professors who rock Harvard.

• Bucharest in 1961 . Plus photos from all UNESCO World Heritage sites in Romania (both via RomAlien)

• An analysis of journal submission strategies. I didn't have the time to follow in detail their analysis, but the conclusion is sensible:

"The journal submission process is a controversial and stressful part of academia. There are many dimensions of uncertainty, and bad decisions could greatly delay publication of important results and harm one's career. This paper provides new evidence that, on the whole, the advice supplied to young faculty members by veterans of academia is correct. Authors largely have an incentive to submit first to the best journals and then subsequently, wortk their way down a schedule of journals. The exceptions to this simple rule occur when authors are particularly impatient or risk-averse.

We also note, however, that the efficiency of the system may be improved by a system in which journals reduce time lags, perhaps through incentive-based rewards for faster reviewing by referees, and increase submission fees. This system reduces the impact of time-lags on impatient or risk averse authors and more efficiently rations submissions to journals- higher reward journals will get more submissions of high-quality papers and fewer submissions of low-quality papers. This also streamlines the publication process, shortening the time during which important results are sitting on a desk, waiting for publication. "

Klausenburg, anno 1865

WHEN you leave Szamos Ujvár, the road passes straight over a plain, with little or nothing to relieve the monotony. A Hungarian village or two, a nobleman's mansion with the surrounding farm-buildings,-that is all, until the tall spire and the various towers of Klausenburg rise before you. The town takes you by surprise, entering it from the north; the main street is broad, with many stately buildings in it, and the square with the Catholic church in the centre, seems to belong to a larger town than Klausenburg really is. Though it has but 25,000 inhabitants, which is less than the population of Kronstadt, its general appearance makes it seem the more considerable town of the two. The capital of the Barzenland is neat and compact, the houses are none of them high; and owing to its position among the hills, which gives it such enviable beauty, there is no possibility of broad streets and an open square in the centre of the town, as is the case in Klausenburg. Here there is plenty of room and to spare, and it would seem as if the Saxon founders-liking spacious dwellings, and needing them probably for their families and servants--had determined to make use of it.

All the old buildings are essentially German in their architecture and arrangements. The ironwork before the windows, the balconies, railings, the spouts for the water running from the gutters of the roof,-each bears its own unmistakable impress; the hand and skill of the German handicraftsman is everywhere to be recognized. Those first settlers were evidently well to do in the world,-comfortable citizens, who, if they did not care for luxury, valued at its full a good substantial dwelling, giving evidence that its possessor was also a man of substance.

The above is a fragment from Chapter XXVII of Charles Boner's "Transylvania. Its Products and Its People", published in London, in 1865. The whole book is available online, part of a very welcome research project at DXARTS/CARTAH, University of Washington-- which collects, inter alia, a bunch of other, old(er), books/translations about Romania et al, in digital format.

Weekend econlinks

• The other side of scientific publishing: the Editor's perspective. In this case nothing to complain about (au contraire: e.g., see earlier): if only most editors (cross-disciplinary) would follow on McAfee's steps... unfortunately, plenty of counterexamples around, such as the editors involved here

• Steven Shreve on working with models in the finance world. Shreve on a similar topic, earlier.

• Troubles in the adult entertainment industry...

• Econblogs doing great.

• One of the few things Romanians could/should copy from their Moldavian neighbours

• Bill Easterly reminding us about the gains from specialization.

• They might be having a slow, if any, economic recovery, but the Japanese are way ahead than anybody else technology-wise: Isaac Asimov would have loved this restaurant in Nagoya, Japan. Related, earlier.

• The hot waitress economic index.

• The Google Translate service: not a bad job (though things can be improved: e.g. "how are you, friend?" is translated in Danish "how are you, ven?" and in Hungarian "how are you, barátom?"; in most other languages I can check it seems to work fine :-)). See also a Google Research Blog recent article on the theme.


• The race to hire economists. Or statisticians. Or their combination?

• A new business hype (?): Investing in lawsuits.